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The cryptocurrency market went through a relatively stable week on the surface, although several important movements took place beneath it. Between July 29 and August 4, bitcoin traded in a range of approximately $62,200 to $65,100 before returning to around $63,800. It therefore ended the period near where it began, despite increased volatility following the Federal Reserve’s decision.
Bitcoin initially benefited from renewed optimism after the U.S. central bank’s announcement. Its price briefly moved above $65,000, but the advance failed to attract enough demand to produce a genuine technical breakout. Sellers quickly regained control, and BTC moved below $63,000 on July 31 before stabilizing over the weekend.
The decline did not, however, trigger panic. The region between $62,000 and $62,500 once again attracted buyers, while liquidations remained relatively contained. The market therefore retains a consolidation structure rather than clearly resuming its downtrend. The low established near $57,000 to $58,000 in late June remains intact.
The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate within a range of 3.50% to 3.75%. The decision was approved by a vote of nine to three, with the three dissenters preferring a 0.25-percentage-point increase. This unusual division shows that concerns surrounding inflation remain significant, even though most officials still prefer to wait for additional data before tightening monetary policy further.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh also emphasized that the central bank remains firmly committed to its 2% inflation target and that no higher informal target exists. His remarks, however, provided little guidance about upcoming decisions. This lack of clear direction contributed to increased bond-market volatility, with the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries moving above 5.20% for the first time since 2007.
For cryptocurrencies, this situation produces conflicting effects. Keeping rates unchanged avoids an immediate tightening of financial conditions, but the possibility of a September increase limits risk appetite. Bitcoin is increasingly reacting as a macroeconomic asset that is sensitive to interest rates, currencies, oil prices and movements in technology stocks.
The coordinated intervention by the United States and Japan to support the yen illustrated this evolution. It was the first joint operation of its kind since 1998. A rapid strengthening of the yen can force some investors to close positions financed at low cost in Japan, potentially causing sales across several asset classes. Bitcoin nevertheless absorbed the news without a major correction, remaining near $63,600 when the intervention was confirmed.
From a technical perspective, the area between $62,000 and $62,500 now represents the most important immediate support. A sustained decline below that region would bring attention back to $60,000 and then the June lows. On the upside, bitcoin must reclaim the $64,500-to-$65,000 region. A sustained close above $65,000 would once again open the way toward $66,500 and then $67,500.
On-chain data confirm that the market is at a point of equilibrium. Less than 55% of the bitcoin supply is currently estimated to be held at an unrealized profit, placing the average investor close to their acquisition price. The short-term holder profit ratio remains just below 1. This indicates that selling remains orderly, without genuine capitulation, but does not yet confirm a new accumulation phase.
Flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs were among the week’s most encouraging developments. These products recorded approximately $32 million in inflows on July 29 and $233 million the following day. A significant $265 million outflow was then observed on July 31, before inflows resumed with approximately $170 million on August 3.
Across the four available sessions, Bitcoin ETFs therefore attracted close to $170 million in net inflows. This result partially reverses the previous week’s withdrawals and indicates that institutional demand has not disappeared. Flows nevertheless remain highly irregular and largely concentrated in products offered by BlackRock and Fidelity.
This concentration was illustrated by Hashdex’s decision to close its U.S. Bitcoin ETF, DEFI, after August 17. The fund held only $14.7 million in assets, compared with more than $47 billion for BlackRock’s product. The closure therefore does not call the viability of the overall sector into question, but it shows that smaller issuers are struggling to compete with the most liquid products.
Ethereum experienced a somewhat more difficult week. After beginning the period near $1,915, ETH attempted to move above $1,950 before falling toward $1,830. It subsequently recovered to approximately $1,870 on August 4. Ethereum therefore ended the week lower and failed to maintain the relative advantage over bitcoin that had started to emerge during the previous period.
The region between $1,830 and $1,850 now represents its first important support. A decline below this area could lead to a return toward $1,800 and then the June lows. On the upside, Ethereum will need to reclaim $1,900 and then break through the psychological $2,000 threshold to confirm a more sustainable improvement.
Flows into Ethereum ETFs also lost momentum. These products recorded an outflow of nearly $33 million on July 29, followed by modest inflows of $13 million and $9 million during the next two sessions. Another outflow of approximately $12 million was observed on August 3. The net result for the four available sessions was therefore an outflow of roughly $23 million.
This divergence from Bitcoin ETFs shows that the institutional rotation toward Ethereum remains fragile. The ability to earn staking revenue continues to represent a fundamental advantage for ETH, but demand must now translate into more consistent flows and a recovery above $2,000.
Open interest in bitcoin futures reached its highest level in approximately two months. This increase shows that investors are once again taking larger positions, but it also raises the risk of liquidations if the price quickly breaks out of its current range. For now, leverage does not appear to have reached the extreme levels generally observed near market peaks.
One of the week’s most significant developments came from Strategy. The company sold 1,638 bitcoins between July 27 and August 2 for net proceeds of approximately $104.7 million, at an average price of $63,957. Following the transaction, its reserves stood at 842,138 bitcoins, acquired at an average cost of approximately $75,419.
Strategy used roughly half of the proceeds to fund dividends associated with its preferred shares and the other half to repurchase STRC preferred shares. The transaction represents a notable change for a company long characterized by almost continuous bitcoin accumulation. It shows that its treasury model must now contend with recurring financial obligations and a bitcoin price below its average cost.
The sale does not necessarily mean that Strategy is abandoning its long-term strategy. It does, however, demonstrate that companies holding large cryptocurrency reserves may eventually need to sell some assets to fund dividends, interest payments or share repurchases. The market will therefore need to monitor these structures, particularly if bitcoin remains under pressure for an extended period.
The industry was also shaken by a vulnerability affecting certain Coldcard hardware wallets. A weakness in the random generation of some recovery phrases reportedly allowed attackers to guess private keys. Losses were estimated at approximately $114 million as of August 4, and the manufacturer was still urging affected users to update their devices, create a new recovery phrase and move their funds.
The incident does not represent a vulnerability in the Bitcoin protocol itself. It instead serves as a reminder that self-custody security depends as much on the quality of the hardware and software as it does on the user’s practices. A hardware wallet cannot protect assets if the private key was created using an insufficient source of randomness. Diversifying custody methods and using multisignature configurations remain particularly important for high-value portfolios.
Despite these negative developments, institutional adoption continued to advance. BNY plans to add staking services to its digital-asset custody platform through a partnership with Galaxy. Subject to regulatory approval, institutional clients will be able to earn staking rewards without transferring their assets to another custodian.
Wells Fargo also announced plans to launch tokenized deposits for corporate and institutional clients in the fall of 2026. The service is initially expected to support cross-border transfers in U.S. dollars and British pounds on a proprietary blockchain. These deposits will be transferable around the clock and offer certain programmable functions while remaining traditional bank liabilities.
BlackRock, meanwhile, introduced 12 new tokenized share classes associated with six money-market funds offered across 15 European markets. The funds involved collectively represent approximately $311 billion in assets under management. Developed with JPMorgan’s Kinexys platform, the initiative will allow investors to hold and transfer fund shares using blockchain infrastructure.
These announcements show that tokenization is now expanding well beyond experimental projects. Banks and asset managers are seeking to improve cash transfers, transaction settlement, collateral management and institutional custody. Tokenized deposits, on-chain money-market funds and regulated staking could become important links between traditional markets and public networks.
On the regulatory front, the CLARITY Act remains uncertain in the United States. Negotiations continued ahead of the Senate’s summer recess, but the bill must still obtain the support of at least 60 senators. The main divisions concern restrictions on the crypto activities of senior government officials and rewards offered on stablecoins, which several banks continue to oppose.
The bill’s return to active discussions represents an improvement from its apparent postponement the previous week, but rapid passage is far from guaranteed. Even if an initial vote takes place before the recess, some of the work may have to continue in September. The market should therefore not treat U.S. regulatory clarity as a confirmed short-term catalyst.
In summary, the period from July 29 to August 4 demonstrated considerable resilience from bitcoin. Despite divisions within the Federal Reserve, bond-market volatility, Strategy’s sale and the Coldcard incident, BTC ended the week almost unchanged. Renewed net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and new institutional initiatives offset some of these concerns.
The situation nevertheless remains fragile. Bitcoin must reclaim $65,000 to restart its advance, while Ethereum needs to recover above $1,900 and then $2,000. ETF flows, U.S. inflation developments, bond yields and the negotiations surrounding the CLARITY Act should remain the main factors to monitor. The market continues to build its infrastructure, but it has not yet confirmed the return of a sustainable upward trend.
Please note that publication of this weekly update will pause for the next two weeks while the author of these lines enjoys a summer vacation. It will then resume on its usual schedule.
The presented information is as of August 4th, 2026, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.
