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The period from September 30 to October 6 was constructive for bitcoin, which advanced from approximately $83,600 to $86,300, a gain of just over 3%. The price temporarily moved above $87,000 before pulling back, but it ended the period well above its starting level despite Treasury yields remaining very high.
Ethereum advanced more modestly, rising from approximately $2,685 to $2,715, a gain of roughly 1%. ETH remained relatively stable compared with bitcoin, reflecting less favourable institutional flows. Its ability to stay above $2,650 nevertheless preserves a reasonably constructive technical structure.
The main catalyst was the U.S. employment report. The economy created only 29,000 jobs in September, compared with the 90,000 expected, while the unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.2%. The previous two months were also revised lower. These figures substantially reduced the probability of another Federal Reserve rate increase in October, with markets now assigning a probability of nearly 80% to rates remaining unchanged.
The macroeconomic picture nevertheless remains mixed. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index increased by 0.3% in August and by 3.4% year over year. The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield reached approximately 5.29%, its highest level since 2002, before easing back toward 5.27%. Brent crude declined below $99 per barrel after moving above $100, slightly reducing inflation concerns. A weaker labour market diminishes the need for further monetary tightening, but the Federal Reserve continues to face prices that remain too elevated.
ETF flows were more mixed. Between September 30 and October 5, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $54 million in net inflows. This modest result masks significant daily variations, including nearly $190 million in inflows on October 2 and approximately $90 million in outflows on October 5. Ethereum ETFs recorded approximately $203 million in net outflows, helping explain ETH’s more limited performance. October 6 data was not yet available at the time of writing.
From a technical perspective, the $84,000-to-$85,000 region is now bitcoin’s first support, followed by $82,000. A break below the latter area would return attention to $80,000. On the upside, bitcoin must move decisively above $87,000 and then $90,000. A convincing break above $90,000 could open a path toward $93,000 to $95,000. For Ethereum, $2,650 remains the immediate support, followed by $2,550, while the main resistance levels are located at $2,750, $2,800 and $3,000.
Institutional adoption continued. Strategy acquired an additional 334 BTC for approximately $29 million at an average price of $85,839. The company now holds 848,000 BTC, acquired at an average cost of approximately $75,441. The pace of purchases has slowed, but their continuation near current levels indicates that long-term confidence remains intact.
On the regulatory front, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed a voluntary federal framework for platforms offering margined or leveraged crypto transactions. Participants would notably be subject to anti-manipulation controls and proof-of-reserves requirements. The U.S. Treasury also adopted interim procedures allowing states to seek certification of their stablecoin oversight regimes ahead of the GENIUS Act taking effect. These initiatives do not replace comprehensive market-structure legislation, but they are gradually reducing regulatory uncertainty.
The main factors to monitor will be bitcoin’s ability to hold the $84,000-to-$85,000 region, another attempt above $87,000, movements in bond yields and the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting. The ten-year U.S. yield remaining below 5.30% and oil prices stabilizing would provide a more favourable backdrop for a move toward $90,000. Conversely, renewed inflation or another rapid increase in interest rates could extend the consolidation.
The presented information is as of October 6th, 2026, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.
