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Bitcoin is currently moving through a particularly delicate zone, caught between several important technical and onchain levels. Since the beginning of April, its price has been closely tracking the 2026 realized price, estimated at around $76,200 according to Checkonchain. This level represents the average acquisition cost of bitcoins that last moved in 2026, making it an increasingly watched benchmark among analysts, and one that is sometimes considered more meaningful than simple psychological support or resistance levels.
The market has recently shown a certain degree of resilience. After briefly falling toward $74,500 over the weekend, bitcoin rebounded from its 128-day moving average, a closely followed technical level. However, it remains below several major onchain resistance levels located near $77,000, including the true market mean and the short-term holder cost basis. These indicators are often interpreted as barometers of broader market sentiment and the positioning of more recent investors.
Another factor is helping keep the market within a narrow range: the major options expiry scheduled for May 29 on Deribit, with approximately $6.6 billion in open interest. The largest positions are concentrated around the $75,000 put and the $80,000 call, creating an incentive for certain market participants, particularly market makers, to keep the price between these two levels as expiry approaches. This dynamic is contributing to the current compression in volatility.
Glassnode data also confirms this significant market concentration. More than 15% of bitcoin’s circulating supply is believed to have been acquired between $74,000 and $83,000, showing how dense this price zone is in terms of positioning. As long as bitcoin fails to break clearly out of this range, the market could remain trapped in a fragile balance between onchain support, technical resistance, and options-related pressure.
According to Enflux, buying interest is still present, but participants are hesitant to meaningfully increase their exposure. Glassnode data points to the same conclusion: selling pressure appears to be easing and the balance between buyers and sellers is improving, but overall activity remains too weak to confirm a true return of conviction. In other words, the market does not appear to be preparing for a sharp breakdown, but it is not showing signs of an imminent breakout either.
Bitcoin’s recent behavior is also puzzling analysts. Despite several macroeconomic shocks, including Moody’s downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt and Walmart’s warnings about the impact of geopolitical energy costs and weaker consumer spending, BTC has remained surprisingly stable. For the market to resume a clear upward trend, what is mainly missing is a strong return of institutional demand.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs attracted $2.44 billion in April, but inflows have since cooled. At the same time, BTC reserves on exchanges remain near decade-low levels, around 2.3 million bitcoins, which continues to support a favorable supply backdrop. The next U.S. PCE inflation report could therefore prove decisive: a higher-than-expected inflation reading would reinforce the higher-for-longer interest rate narrative, while a softer figure could revive institutional appetite for risk assets, including bitcoin.
The ZEC position held by the Rivemont Crypto Fund continues to generate outperformance relative to the bitcoin index, as both the price and the ratio against BTC have reached highs not seen since November 2025.
A new bipartisan bill introduced Thursday in the House of Representatives proposes tighter rules around the U.S. government’s bitcoin holdings by placing them in a strategic reserve for a minimum period of 20 years. The bill, titled the American Reserve Modernization Act of 2026, or ARMA, was introduced by Republican Representative Nick Begich of Alaska, with Democratic Representative Jared Golden of Maine as co-lead. It aims to turn into law the direction already set by Donald Trump’s 2025 executive order, which called for the creation of a national bitcoin reserve.
Unlike some previous proposals, including the BITCOIN Act, ARMA does not set a target of acquiring 1 million BTC. Instead, the bill focuses on digital assets already held by the federal government, often obtained through criminal or civil forfeitures. Bitcoins transferred into this reserve could not be sold, swapped, auctioned, or otherwise disposed of before the end of the 20-year lockup period. After that period, the Treasury Secretary could recommend selling up to 10% of the reserve’s assets over a two-year period.
The bill also provides for the creation of a separate inventory for other digital assets held by the government, such as ether or certain stablecoins. Within 60 days of the law’s possible enactment, federal agencies would be required to provide a full accounting of the digital assets under their control. According to unofficial data from Arkham Intelligence, the U.S. government’s crypto holdings are currently estimated at roughly $26 billion, mainly in bitcoin, ether, and USDT.
ARMA also emphasizes transparency and oversight. The bill would require quarterly public proof-of-reserve reports, independent audits, and increased congressional supervision. For any potential additional acquisitions, the proposal does not call for direct budget-funded purchases, but instead asks the Treasury and Commerce departments to study “budget-neutral” mechanisms, such as converting non-bitcoin assets, revaluing gold certificates, using forfeiture proceeds, tariff revenues, or partnerships with states.
Strategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of bitcoin, chose last week to allocate part of its cash to debt repurchases rather than buying additional BTC. According to a regulatory filing released Tuesday, the company repurchased $1.5 billion of its 0% convertible senior notes due in 2029 through privately negotiated transactions, for a total amount of $1.38 billion.
The transaction was funded from the company’s cash reserves, which fell to approximately $871 million after the repurchase and related capital transactions. Michael Saylor, Strategy’s executive chairman, alluded to the decision on X by saying that the company had bought bonds that week, not bitcoin. The move marks an unusual pause in the aggressive BTC accumulation strategy that normally defines the company.
The repurchase allows Strategy to reduce its debt level and reorganize part of its financial obligations tied to its bitcoin-backed treasury model. Once the transaction is settled, the company’s total debt is expected to fall from around $8.2 billion to $6.7 billion, strengthening its balance sheet while maintaining its massive exposure to BTC.
Strategy still holds 843,738 bitcoins, acquired at an average price of approximately $75,700 per coin, for a total cost of around $63.9 billion. Despite the absence of a new bitcoin purchase, MSTR shares were up 1.9% in premarket trading, supported by BTC’s modest rebound toward $77,000.
Bitcoin’s implied volatility has fallen to 36%, its lowest level in eight months, indicating that professional traders expect continued consolidation rather than large short-term price swings. This drop in volatility does not, by itself, provide a clear market direction. It mainly shows that participants appear less concerned about a sudden shock, as BTC has been trading within a relatively contained range for several weeks.
After the sharp correction seen between January and February, volatility surged, particularly because the move appeared difficult to explain through one clear factor. Even when bitcoin later stabilized between $63,000 and $71,000 in March, implied volatility remained above 50%. Over time, the $60,000 zone came to be viewed as a more credible support level, reducing perceived risk. Some analysts also believe that the growing presence of institutional investors, the expansion of derivatives products, and the use of BTC-backed loans are helping to cushion forced selling.
That said, a period of low volatility can often precede a more violent move, especially in an asset that is still as young as bitcoin. Historically, major price impulses have often followed extended phases of compression. CoinGlass data notably shows a heavy concentration of leveraged short positions between $78,000 and $83,000. If bitcoin were to break through this zone, a move toward $82,000 could trigger a wave of short liquidations and accelerate the rally.
The presented information is as of May 26th, 2026, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.
