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Bitcoin recently failed once again to break above the $70,000 threshold, pulling back toward $67,000 after an early-week attempt to move higher. This hesitation comes within a broader context in which several headwinds are restraining market momentum. For several months, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have recorded significant net outflows—more than $9 billion cumulatively—limiting the strength of any rebound. Recent recoveries appear to have been driven more by short-covering than by meaningful new inflows from long-term buyers.
This is compounded by a tense macroeconomic environment. Renewed tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices higher, reigniting inflation concerns ahead of a key Federal Reserve decision. Rising energy costs complicate the monetary outlook and dampen appetite for risk assets. In addition, uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy, particularly the introduction of new tariffs, has fostered a wait-and-see attitude across global financial markets.
Domestically, investors are also closely monitoring U.S. labor market data. A potential downward revision in employment figures could confirm an economic slowdown and reinforce caution. In this environment, Bitcoin continues to trade in strong correlation with equities, behaving more like a speculative asset than a safe haven.
As long as these headwinds— institutional outflows, geopolitical tensions, trade uncertainty, and doubts about economic strength—persist, analysts expect Bitcoin to remain range-bound rather than begin a sustained uptrend. The question therefore remains open: are we witnessing a simple consolidation phase within the usual four-year cycle, or a deeper shift in market dynamics?
According to a recent analysis by TRM Labs, activity on Iranian crypto platforms fell by approximately 80% following U.S. and Israeli military strikes at the end of February. This sharp contraction in volumes coincided with internet access restrictions imposed in the country during the operations. However, despite the abrupt slowdown, the market’s infrastructure does not appear to show signs of structural collapse.
Major domestic platforms reportedly remain operational, albeit in a more cautious mode. Some temporarily limited or batched withdrawals, reduced order book depth, and issued risk warnings to users. Meanwhile, Iran’s central bank ordered the temporary suspension of the USDT–toman trading pair—a key bridge between cryptocurrencies and the national currency—across several large platforms. When trading resumed, liquidity was thinner, with brief price dislocations reflecting short-term market fragility.
Despite alarmist rumors circulating on social media, the conflict in Iran is unlikely to significantly disrupt the global Bitcoin mining network, according to several analysts and industry participants. Some posts suggested a collapse in global hashrate and massive BTC sell-offs if major disruptions occurred within Iran. However, experts note that Iran’s actual share of global computing power remains limited, significantly reducing systemic risk to the protocol.
Even if local power outages or temporary mining facility closures were to occur, the impact on block validation times and network security would likely be marginal. Most estimates place Iran’s contribution at only a few percentage points at most, with some assessments below 1%. This is far from a shock comparable to China’s 2021 mining ban, which triggered a sharp and measurable drop in global hashrate.
Bitcoin is now approaching a highly symbolic milestone: the issuance of its 20 millionth coin. Out of a strictly capped maximum supply of 21 million units, more than 95% of the total supply envisioned by the protocol is already in circulation. Only about one million bitcoins remain to be mined, a process that will extend over more than a century due to the issuance schedule programmed from the outset.
This scarcity is no accident. The network’s creator, known under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, embedded a fixed limit into the code to ensure a predictable and non-manipulable supply. Unlike traditional currencies, whose supply can be adjusted by central banks, Bitcoin’s issuance follows an immutable path. This feature forms one of the pillars of its value proposition, often compared to a scarce asset like gold—except that its production cannot increase in response to rising prices.
The pace of creation slows progressively through “halvings,” which cut miner rewards in half roughly every four years. Today, about 450 new bitcoins are generated daily, and if this pace continues, 99% of total supply should be mined by around 2035. The final bitcoin is expected to be issued around 2140, with fractional amounts distributed well after the 21 million threshold is nearly reached.
Over the long term, this gradual reduction in new supply will transform the network’s economic model: miners will rely primarily on transaction fees rather than newly created bitcoins. For supporters, nearing the 20 million mark reinforces the narrative of digital scarcity underpinning its value, while marking an important stage in the protocol’s economic evolution.
Vitalik Buterin believes Ethereum must now prepare for a deep overhaul of its cryptographic foundations to anticipate advances in quantum computing. In his view, several core components of the protocol rely on schemes that could be weakened by future quantum machines. He specifically points to BLS signatures used in the consensus layer, KZG commitments tied to data availability, the ECDSA signature system for standard accounts, and certain zero-knowledge proof mechanisms employed by applications and layer-two solutions.
The proposed plan calls for a gradual transition toward so-called post-quantum alternatives, based on hash functions, lattice-based constructions, or STARKs, an advanced form of cryptographic proof. A key element of this transformation is the selection of a new hash function, which Buterin considers critical for the long term. The goal is to progressively replace vulnerable components without disrupting network stability, through a series of upgrades spread over several years.
A major challenge lies in technical costs. Quantum-resistant signatures are significantly heavier in terms of gas usage, as are proofs adapted to this new context. To prevent a surge in on-chain fees, Buterin proposes recursive aggregation: combining numerous signatures or proofs into a single compact attestation. An improvement proposal (EIP-8141) suggests integrating a validation frame into each transaction that can be compressed into a single proof at the block level.
This transition would represent a substantial engineering undertaking, but one deemed necessary to preserve Ethereum’s long-term security. With the creation of a dedicated post-quantum security team and an initial roadmap already underway, the Ethereum Foundation appears intent on getting ahead of what remains a theoretical—but potentially decisive—threat to the broader crypto ecosystem.
Strategy announced a new major Bitcoin acquisition, investing approximately $200 million to add nearly 3,000 BTC to its balance sheet at an average price of around $67,700 per coin. This marks its third-largest transaction of the year. With this purchase, the company now holds more than 720,000 bitcoins, a portfolio valued at nearly $50 billion at current prices. However, last month’s market decline has left the firm with several billion dollars in unrealized losses.
To finance these purchases, Strategy combined multiple sources of capital. Part of the funding came from its variable-rate preferred instrument, STRC, though most was raised through the issuance of common shares. At the same time, the company announced another increase in the monthly dividend paid to STRC holders, now set at 11.5%. This marks the seventh increase since the product’s launch in July, designed as a high-yield, lower-volatility vehicle.
JPMorgan analysts believe that U.S. legislation governing crypto market structure could be adopted by mid-year, which would serve as a significant supportive factor for the sector in the second half. Despite the current subdued sentiment surrounding digital assets, the bank argues that regulatory clarity could restore investor confidence and revive market momentum.
The proposed text, commonly referred to as the “CLARITY Act,” aims to establish a comprehensive framework for digital assets in the United States. It would notably introduce a clearer distinction between tokens classified as digital commodities—overseen by the CFTC—and those treated as securities under the SEC. This separation would enhance regulatory visibility and end what has been perceived as “regulation by enforcement.” The bill also includes measures to promote tokenization of traditional assets and encourage greater institutional participation in the ecosystem.
Several sticking points remain, particularly regarding yield on stablecoins, which pits crypto firms against traditional banks, as well as conflict-of-interest concerns for public officials. If these obstacles are resolved, the law could provide relief for new projects, clarify the tax treatment of activities such as staking, and exempt certain developers or validators from broker-style obligations as long as they do not hold client funds.
Overall, JPMorgan believes that adopting such a framework would foster domestic innovation, boost institutional participation, and stimulate derivatives markets and tokenized infrastructure. The bank remains constructive on Bitcoin over the long term, recently reiterating an ambitious price target based on a volatility-adjusted comparison with gold.
According to Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3 and a well-known Bitcoin advocate, the cryptocurrency currently appears to be lagging relative to gold and global money supply growth. In his view, the precious metal may have become overstretched after rising above $5,200 per ounce, while Bitcoin trades below its historical trend when compared to gold’s market capitalization or broader monetary aggregates.
Mow argues that Bitcoin stands between 24% and 66% below its relative trend, suggesting potential for catch-up. To support his analysis, he points to the Z-score of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, a statistical indicator measuring the deviation of the current value from its historical average. A negative reading indicates that Bitcoin is undervalued relative to its past norm; the deeper it moves into negative territory, the more pronounced the gap.
Historically, when the Z-score of the ratio has fallen below -2, the market has often entered phases of strong appreciation. This occurred following the Covid crash in March 2020 and after the collapse of the FTX exchange in 2022. In both cases, the sharp drop in the ratio preceded substantial Bitcoin price rallies in the months that followed.
At present, the ratio remains negative but has not reached the extreme levels seen during prior major bottoms. For proponents of this view, the current setup suggests that Bitcoin may be in a zone of relative undervaluation, potentially paving the way for a bullish reversal if market conditions improve.
Bitcoin options markets are beginning to reflect a more constructive positioning, with some traders anticipating a rebound toward the $90,000 area. According to the platform Derive, several indicators suggest that the market may be attempting to form a base after weeks of nervous trading. Implied volatility has stabilized around 50%, a level more commonly associated with consolidation phases than panic, while certain sentiment metrics are gradually improving.
Analysis of options skew—which measures the imbalance between downside protection demand and bullish bets—shows a rebalancing. Traders appear to be scaling back aggressive downside hedges without abandoning caution altogether. Late-March expiries show significant call interest clustered around the $80,000 and $90,000 strikes, suggesting that part of the market is targeting a return to the $85,000–$95,000 range if liquidity conditions improve.
On the Rivemont Crypto Fund side, the damage was limited in February thanks to our liquidity positioning. The fund declined by 13%, compared to a 22% drop in Bitcoin.
The presented information is as of March 3rd, 2026, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.
