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As you have certainly noticed, the value of the Rivemont Crypto Fund declined far less during the most recent market downturn than the cryptocurrency market as a whole. We had shifted part of our exposure into cash in order to protect the fund’s assets. Over the past few days, we have redeployed a portion of those available funds. It is certainly possible that market conditions remain challenging in the short term. That said, we remain convinced that maintaining exposure to this asset class is essential in order to fully benefit from all the advantages we share with you each week in this newsletter.
The recent correction in bitcoin appears to be losing momentum, according to several analysts drawing on on-chain data. After reaching its lowest level since Donald Trump’s reelection, selling pressure seems to be showing signs of fatigue. Indicators such as the balance between aggressive buying and selling, as well as the share of supply still in profit, suggest that the downturn is slowing, even though there is still no clear confirmation of a genuine trend reversal at this stage.
A key element behind this assessment lies in the behavior of large investors. During the latest leg of the decline, large wallets accumulated more than 54,000 bitcoins, a pattern often interpreted as a “buy the dip” signal. According to data reported by CryptoQuant, this accumulation is taking place in an environment where liquidity remains tight and where macroeconomic conditions, combined with regulatory uncertainty, continue to weigh on risk appetite.
Market indicators nevertheless confirm that the situation remains fragile. Spot market cumulative volume delta remains deeply negative, a level that Glassnode has historically associated with seller exhaustion rather than a fresh wave of heavy distribution. At the same time, the proportion of bitcoins held at a profit has fallen to around 55%, meaning that a majority of holders are sitting on unrealized losses, which reduces their incentive to sell further.
Despite these encouraging signals, many observers urge caution. Accumulation by whales tends mainly to stabilize prices rather than trigger an immediate rebound. In a market now largely dominated by institutional players, any durable recovery will depend primarily on a clear and sustained return of their buying interest, itself contingent on easing financial tensions and a more favorable macroeconomic backdrop.
Bitcoin is going through a pivotal phase after a drop of roughly 45% from its October 2025 peak, now trading around $68,500 according to CoinGecko data. The debate is no longer about whether the market regime has changed, but about what comes next: a swift technical rebound or a prolonged digestion phase. Two scenarios clearly stand in opposition, reflecting the tension between short-term market dynamics and more persistent macroeconomic constraints.
In the near term, some analysts are anticipating a sharp rebound fueled by an excess of bearish positioning. In this view, the market’s inability to break decisively below key support levels could force short sellers to cover, triggering a rapid upward move toward the $84,000 area. Prediction markets reflect this renewed optimism: on Myriad, the probability of such a rally has surged in just a few days, signaling a short-term shift in sentiment toward a bullish scenario.
Other observers, however, favor a more cautious outlook. In their view, the market may be entering a typical “gravity phase” of the cycle, marked by slow and uneven consolidation. Under this scenario, bitcoin could fluctuate for six to twelve months within a broad $45,000 to $55,000 range, pressured by tighter liquidity, higher interest rates, and the excess enthusiasm built up at previous highs, particularly through ETFs.
Despite these short- and medium-term divergences, a broader consensus is emerging on the long-term picture. Over time, bitcoin appears poised to assert itself as a non-sovereign store of value, in a context where public debt and fiscal dominance increasingly constrain monetary policy. This gradual transformation would see bitcoin evolve from a speculative, tech-cycle-sensitive asset into an alternative macroeconomic pillar whose appeal extends beyond simple market cycles.
Bitcoin’s recent rebound, climbing back to just below $70,000 after a rapid slide toward $60,000, has been accompanied by an interesting signal from U.S. demand. A key indicator, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, has recovered from deeply negative levels, suggesting that some U.S.-based buyers stepped in near the lows. That rebound remains partial, however: despite a gain of more than 15% from the intraday bottom, bitcoin is still showing a notable weekly decline.
The narrowing of this price gap—measured between prices on Coinbase and the global average—reflects a shift in behavior. During the panic phase, the indicator had fallen to around -0.22%, signaling either withdrawal or forced selling by U.S. investors. Its move back toward -0.05% indicates that selling pressure has eased and that opportunistic buying has emerged, likely attracted by levels seen as more appealing after the fastest correction since the FTX episode in 2022.
Even so, this signal remains cautious. The fact that the premium is still negative shows that there has not yet been a clear return of risk appetite or sustained accumulation by U.S. funds. Rather than a broad-based move, the activity appears more selective, taking place in an environment of modest volumes and limited liquidity.
Market structure data point in the same direction. According to Kaiko, overall activity on major exchanges remains well below the peaks seen at the end of 2025. This thin liquidity can amplify rebounds once selling pressure is exhausted, but it also leaves the market vulnerable to another leg lower if demand fails to strengthen quickly.
The Bitcoin network has just experienced one of its sharpest shocks in several years, with mining difficulty dropping by about 11%, the steepest decline since China’s crackdown in 2021. This decrease reflects a significant pullback in hashrate, driven both by the sharp fall in bitcoin’s price and by widespread outages linked to winter storms in the United States. According to Blockchain.com data, difficulty fell from roughly 141.6 trillion to around 125.9 trillion, indicating that a large number of machines have gone offline.
Miners are under intense economic pressure. Since the October peak, when bitcoin was trading near $126,000, the price decline toward the $69,000 area has severely eroded sector profitability. Operators running less efficient equipment or facing high energy costs have been the first forced to scale back or shut down operations. This environment has also accelerated diversification efforts, with some players redirecting infrastructure toward artificial intelligence, seen as offering more stable and predictable revenues.
The deterioration is particularly visible in mining revenues. Hashprice, which measures earnings per unit of computing power, has been cut in half, falling from around $70 to just over $35. Extreme weather conditions, especially in Texas, have worsened the situation, as grid operators requested power reductions, forcing several publicly traded miners to sharply curtail daily output. In this context, Bitfarms even saw its share price jump after announcing a strategic pivot toward data centers and high-performance computing workloads tied to AI.
Despite its apparent severity, the drop in difficulty plays an essential self-correcting role. By reducing competition, it mechanically improves margins for miners that remain online and helps rebalance the ecosystem. Historically, such episodes have often coincided with phases of market capitulation, sometimes preceding price stabilization—or even a rebound—once selling pressure from distressed miners has been absorbed.
During a panel discussion at the Digital Assets Forum London, Bradley Duke, head of Europe at Bitwise, offered a contrasted view of the roles of gold and bitcoin within a portfolio. According to him, gold primarily acts as a shock absorber during periods of stress, while bitcoin plays a more offensive role, capable of boosting performance during recovery phases. In other words, one protects against downturns while the other amplifies rebounds—two complementary rather than competing functions.
This distinction comes as the comparison of bitcoin to “digital gold” is increasingly being questioned. Over the past six months, the yellow metal has surged to new highs, while bitcoin has suffered a sharp decline. Duke attributes this divergence to a deeply ingrained investor reflex: in times of uncertainty, capital instinctively flows toward a millennia-old safe haven. Trust in bitcoin, viewed as a form of “better money” over the long term, is still being built, but that process takes time.
The discussions also addressed the relevance of bitcoin’s four-year cycles, historically linked to halvings. Several participants argued that their influence is fading, since most bitcoins are already in circulation and institutional flows—particularly via ETFs—now outweigh the impact of new supply issuance. In this context, the bitcoin market is gradually shifting toward a macro-driven logic, less dominated by mechanical cycles and more by institutional allocation decisions.
The publicly listed company Strategy, which specializes in holding bitcoin as a treasury asset, has continued to buy despite the recent market downturn. Last week, it acquired 1,142 BTC for roughly $90 million, funded through the sale of common shares. That purchase is already underwater, as bitcoin is now trading well below the average acquisition price for that tranche, around $78,800 per coin.
In total, Strategy now holds close to 714,000 bitcoins, representing about 3.4% of the network’s maximum supply. The market value of this portfolio is near $50 billion, but the company spent more than that to build its position. With an average cost estimated at just over $76,000 per BTC, Strategy is sitting on an unrealized loss of roughly $4.8 billion. This situation is directly linked to bitcoin’s decline, which is down more than 23% over the past month and trading near $69,000 according to CoinGecko.
The correction has also weighed on Strategy’s stock, which hit an 18-month low before partially rebounding alongside the crypto market. Despite a massive accounting loss reported for the fourth quarter of 2025, management remains committed to its long-term strategy. Founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor continues to defend a vision centered on sustained bitcoin accumulation, which he sees as the core pillar of the company’s financial structure.
According to a recent note from TD Cowen, Strategy is now better positioned than ever to weather bitcoin’s correction and benefit from a potential market recovery. Despite the sharp drop in MSTR shares—down roughly 17% in a single session alongside bitcoin’s slide—analysts argue that there is no credible scenario in which the company would be forced to sell its bitcoin or materially alter its strategy.
This equity volatility is viewed as intentional and structural. Analysts note that Strategy’s stock was designed as an amplified exposure to bitcoin, with historically larger moves both up and down. In practice, the shares act as a form of leverage, exhibiting volatility roughly 1.5 times that of bitcoin, a behavior consistent with the company’s treasury model.
From a financial standpoint, TD Cowen strikes a reassuring tone. Strategy is said to hold around $2.25 billion in cash reserves, sufficient to cover fixed charges for nearly 17 months and to handle potential convertible debt redemptions beginning in 2027. On their calculations, serious pressure would not emerge before 2028, even in the event of a much deeper and more prolonged bitcoin downturn.
Finally, the bank highlights the emergence of a genuine “digital credit engine” at Strategy, fueled by large-scale issuance of preferred shares and instruments offering both yield and liquidity. TD Cowen maintains an elevated price target for the stock and expects a new bitcoin all-time high by 2026–2027. This view is shared by Strategy’s leadership, with executive chairman Michael Saylor asserting that the company’s capital structure could withstand a prolonged period of very low bitcoin prices without threatening its solvency.
Bitcoin sentiment has reached a historically pessimistic level, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index falling to 7, an all-time record for extreme fear. This anxious backdrop has nevertheless coincided with a rebound in BTC above $71,000, reigniting the debate over whether the $60,000 area marked a bottom. For some contrarian investors, this kind of widespread panic has often preceded phases of stabilization or recovery.
Several analysts emphasize that oversold indicators are exceptionally pronounced. Michaël van de Poppe notes that the fear index, combined with a daily RSI around 15, has only been seen during major capitulation events such as the 2018 bear market or the March 2020 shock. Adding to this is a notable liquidation imbalance: according to CoinGlass, a significant price increase would expose more than $5.5 billion in short positions to forced liquidations, compared with far less pressure on a move back toward $60,000, potentially setting the stage for a technical rally.
The presented information is as of February 10th, 2026, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.
