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The cryptocurrency market is showing signs of reawakening, as bitcoin has climbed above $92,000 alongside a clear acceleration in trading volumes. This advance, supported by an increase of roughly 25% in daily activity, has renewed investor interest in a potential shift in trend. The $94,500 level remains a key hurdle, however: a decisive break above it would open the door to a move back toward the psychological $100,000 zone, putting an end to several months of consolidation marked by a gradual downward bias.
In derivatives markets, conditions remain cautious. Liquidations on leveraged platforms have declined compared with previous days, reflecting a hesitant trading environment. Volatility indicators remain subdued and open interest in futures markets is largely unchanged, as traders prefer to wait for the release of key macroeconomic data in the United States. Despite this apparent calm, demand for certain bullish options suggests the market may be positioning for a stronger move, while still maintaining protection against a downside scenario.
Precious metals have posted a sharp rally, with gold and silver reaching new all-time highs amid political and monetary uncertainty in the United States. This flight to safety has emerged as investors seek protection ahead of crucial inflation data releases. By contrast, bitcoin has remained largely flat, highlighting a clear divergence between digital assets and more traditional hedging instruments.
The catalyst for this move lies in an unprecedented political crisis surrounding the Federal Reserve, following legal action by the Department of Justice against its chair. This episode has reignited concerns over central bank independence and the credibility of U.S. monetary policy. In this environment, capital has rotated toward gold and silver, which are viewed as proven safe havens during periods of geopolitical and institutional turbulence.
The rally has been particularly striking in silver, which has significantly outperformed gold over a short period, reinforcing the notion of a classic defensive rotation. This shift in sentiment is also visible in prediction markets, where the probabilities assigned to continued gains in gold have risen sharply, even surpassing performance expectations for some major digital assets.
What comes next will depend largely on upcoming U.S. inflation figures, particularly consumer and producer price indexes. Weaker-than-expected readings could reinforce expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, a scenario that typically favors non-yielding assets such as gold and silver. Conversely, firmer data would test the resilience of this rally by confronting safe-haven momentum with macroeconomic reality.
Exchange-traded products linked to cryptocurrencies have experienced a clear reversal since the start of the year, nearly wiping out the gains recorded in 2026. After attracting significant inflows in January, these investment vehicles are now seeing heavy outflows as investors reassess their expectations for the future path of U.S. monetary policy. In just a few days, a large portion of the previously accumulated positive flows has been erased.
This pullback is largely explained by fading hopes for a rapid reduction in policy rates by the Federal Reserve. Futures markets now suggest that rates are very likely to remain unchanged at upcoming meetings in both January and March, whereas monetary easing had seemed plausible only weeks earlier. This abrupt shift in expectations has dampened risk appetite, particularly for bitcoin, which accounts for the bulk of observed outflows.
Despite this unfavorable backdrop, market signals remain nuanced. Products that allow investors to bet against bitcoin have also seen outflows, pointing to broad-based hesitation rather than outright pessimism. At the same time, some investors continue to anticipate monetary easing later in the year, even though expectations have clearly shifted toward the second half.
Standard Chartered has expressed strong conviction in favor of Ethereum, suggesting that 2026 could represent a turning point similar to the previous bull cycle. According to its global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, improving relative fundamentals should allow Ethereum to outperform the broader crypto market, even as recent weakness in bitcoin continues to weigh on overall sector momentum.
In terms of forecasts, the bank has nonetheless lowered its medium-term price targets for Ethereum, reflecting a less supportive macroeconomic environment and slowing investment flows. Targets for 2026 through 2028 have been revised more conservatively, while longer-term projections have been strengthened, signaling increased confidence in Ethereum’s structural potential toward the end of the decade.
The investment case rests primarily on Ethereum’s central role across several key segments of the digital asset ecosystem. The network already hosts a dominant share of stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets, and decentralized finance, areas expected to grow significantly as traditional finance increasingly moves on-chain. This structural advantage, combined with rising on-chain activity, supports the idea of a gradual rebalancing in the relationship between Ethereum and bitcoin.
Finally, the bank emphasizes the importance of ongoing technical improvements to the network, particularly increases in base-layer throughput, which have historically been correlated with higher valuations. Added to this are potentially supportive external factors, such as a clearer U.S. regulatory framework and continued strength in equity markets. In this scenario, a renewed surge in bitcoin could even act as an indirect catalyst, reinforcing Ethereum’s longer-term upward trajectory.
President Donald Trump has clearly stated that he does not intend to grant a presidential pardon to Sam Bankman-Fried, the former head of FTX, now emblematic of the most serious excesses in the crypto sector. This stance was expressed during an exchange with a New York Times journalist, as part of broader questions regarding possible pardon requests involving several high-profile figures.
Convicted after a highly publicized trial, Sam Bankman-Fried was found guilty on multiple counts related to large-scale fraud and the misuse of FTX customer funds. He is currently serving a lengthy prison sentence while appealing both the verdict and the sentence. Despite efforts by those close to him to explore the possibility of presidential clemency, Trump has clearly sought to draw a sharp line between his general support for the crypto industry and this particularly emblematic legal case.
This decision contrasts with other pardons Trump has granted to controversial figures linked to digital assets. He has exercised his powers in favor of Ross Ulbricht, the creator of Silk Road, as well as executives associated with BitMEX and Binance, including its founder Changpeng Zhao. The administration justified these decisions by citing legitimate use of constitutional authority and a critical view of prosecutions pursued under the previous administration.
Donald Trump has also openly embraced a pro-crypto stance, presenting it as both electorally advantageous and strategically necessary in the face of international competition, particularly with China. He dismisses criticism related to potential conflicts of interest, including those tied to his family’s business activities, arguing that support for the crypto ecosystem reflects an assumed political choice. However, by refusing clemency for Sam Bankman-Fried, he appears intent on drawing a clear boundary between promoting financial innovation and maintaining zero tolerance for the most serious forms of fraud.
The company Strategy has carried out its largest bitcoin purchase since the summer, investing more than $1.2 billion in a single week. This move brings its holdings to nearly 690,000 bitcoins, reinforcing its position as the largest corporate holder of the digital asset. At current prices, the company’s bitcoin portfolio is now valued at close to $63 billion, underscoring its continued commitment to a treasury strategy heavily focused on BTC.
To finance this sizable acquisition, Strategy primarily relied on issuing new common shares, supplemented by a tranche of high-yield preferred stock. This product, promoted by executive chairman and co-founder Michael Saylor, is positioned as an alternative to traditional investments for income-seeking investors, including more conservative profiles. Despite some short-term volatility in its share price, the stock quickly showed signs of stabilization.
This development comes against a more reassuring backdrop for shareholders following MSCI’s decision to postpone any exclusion of companies with significant crypto exposure from its equity indices. This clarification eased fears of forced capital outflows that could have weighed heavily on Strategy’s stock. MSCI nevertheless noted that it would not automatically increase the company’s index weighting in the event of additional share issuances, signaling a more cautious approach going forward.
The recent bitcoin correction, which has seen the price retreat from a peak near $126,000 to the $90,000 area, has reignited debate over a potential cycle top. Some observers argue that the market may have already peaked, citing the historical four-year cycle pattern tied to halving events. A closer examination of historical data, however, weakens this pessimistic interpretation and instead points to an intermediate consolidation phase.
When past corrections are compared, the current decline appears significantly less severe than those that followed true cycle peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021. During those periods, the first three months after the peak saw drops of 50% to more than 70%. This time, the pullback roughly three months after the October high is limited to just over 35%, behavior that more closely resembles temporary corrections within an ongoing bull market.
Recent context further supports this view. Since the cycle that began in 2023, bitcoin has already experienced several drawdowns exceeding 30%, notably following the launch of U.S. spot ETFs and during macroeconomic tensions in 2025. By comparison, the current correction is shorter and shallower, aligning more with a market pause than the start of a prolonged bear phase.
From a technical perspective, several signals also favor a constructive scenario. The recovery of price levels above key moving averages suggests buyers are regaining control and momentum may be turning upward. While short-term volatility cannot be ruled out, the available data indicates that the current move is better viewed as a pause within a broader uptrend rather than the definitive end of the cycle.
The presented information is as of January 13th, 2026, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.
