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Bitcoin fell back below the $77,000 mark as markets reacted to another escalation in tensions between the United States and Iran. Investors also adopted a more cautious stance because of renewed inflation concerns, particularly in a context where rising oil prices could complicate the task of the U.S. Federal Reserve. After recently reaching about $82,000, supported by inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and optimism surrounding the U.S. Clarity Act, BTC had a relatively difficult week following its spring rally.
According to analysts, several macroeconomic factors are currently weighing on risk appetite: rising U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, and geopolitical uncertainty. Oil prices jumped after Donald Trump issued threats against Iran, fueling concerns that more expensive energy could keep inflation elevated. In such a scenario, the Fed could be forced to keep monetary policy restrictive for longer, or even raise rates, which generally tends to hurt riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest single day of net outflows since late January on Monday, with approximately $648.6 million withdrawn from these products. This move extends the negative trend seen the previous week, when ETFs had already recorded nearly $1 billion in net outflows, ending a six-week streak of positive inflows.
Despite this pressure, several observers believe the market remains structurally constructive. Bitcoin appears to be consolidating for now around a support zone near $76,000 to $77,000. In addition, the growing market capitalization of major stablecoins such as USDT and USDC suggests that some capital remains on the sidelines, ready to be redeployed if buying opportunities arise. In the short term, investors will mainly be watching interest rates, inflation, volatility, and the tone adopted by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is reportedly preparing to publish a new regulatory framework for tokenized financial securities, an initiative that could mark an important step toward integrating blockchain technology into traditional stock markets. According to Bloomberg, this so-called innovation exemption could be unveiled as early as this week and would allow certain financial institutions to experiment with tokenized shares without immediately having to go through the full registration process normally required.
This approach is part of a trend already underway at the U.S. regulator. In recent months, the SEC has authorized several major players to move forward with projects related to tokenized securities. Nasdaq has notably received approval to allow the trading of tokenized shares, while the New York Stock Exchange is also working on a platform for the trading and on-chain settlement of this type of asset. The DTCC has also been authorized to tokenize certain highly liquid assets on pre-approved blockchains as part of a time-limited program.
Despite this openness, the SEC maintains that tokenized securities remain securities under U.S. federal law. In other words, representing a stock or another financial asset on a blockchain does not change its regulatory nature. The goal therefore appears to be to allow technological innovation while maintaining a legal framework around investor protection and market integrity.
Supporters of tokenization believe this technology could make markets more efficient, particularly through faster settlement, fewer intermediaries, and the possibility of trading certain assets continuously, unlike traditional stocks, which are limited by market hours. Several analysts also believe that the value of tokenized assets could reach several trillion dollars by 2030 if regulatory frameworks become clear enough to encourage large-scale institutional adoption.
Kevin Warsh’s appointment as chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve was confirmed by the Senate on Wednesday, paving the way for him to replace Jerome Powell. The vote, which passed by a 54-to-45 majority, comes after several months of tensions between Donald Trump and the Fed’s current leadership. A Department of Justice investigation targeting Powell, which was recently closed, had also complicated the political process surrounding Warsh’s nomination.
Although Warsh has previously criticized certain crypto projects, describing them as questionable or lacking real value, his profile is viewed as more favorable to digital assets than that of several of his predecessors. He has notably said that Bitcoin does not make him nervous and disclosed investments in crypto-related projects, including Polymarket and Solana. Pro-crypto lawmakers such as Senator Cynthia Lummis welcomed his confirmation, arguing that American businesses and digital asset holders will now have a more open-minded counterpart at the Fed.
Warsh also acknowledged during a Senate hearing that digital assets are already an integral part of the U.S. financial landscape. This position was well received by certain regulators, including CFTC Chair Mike Selig, who has shown support for prediction markets this year. However, his arrival at the head of the central bank comes at a delicate time: inflation remains high, energy prices are being supported by tensions in the Middle East, and markets strongly doubt that monetary easing will happen in the short term.
For cryptocurrencies, Warsh’s confirmation is therefore being interpreted as a positive signal on the institutional front, even though his history as an “inflation hawk” suggests he could remain cautious about rate cuts. Lower rates would normally be favorable for risk assets such as stocks and crypto, but recent inflation data reduces the chances of such a scenario in the near term. Some analysts nevertheless believe that Warsh could eventually justify a more accommodative policy if productivity gains linked to artificial intelligence help ease inflationary pressures.
The rapid progress of quantum computing is raising new concerns for major blockchains, and Citi believes Bitcoin could be more vulnerable than Ethereum. According to its analysts, the risk does not come only from the technology being used, but also from a network’s ability to adapt quickly. Forecasts for the arrival of quantum computers capable of compromising certain forms of cryptography are becoming increasingly close, with some scenarios now pointing to a possible window around 2030 to 2032.
In Bitcoin’s case, the issue is particularly sensitive because some transactions make the public key visible before confirmation. In theory, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could exploit that short window to try to recover the associated private key and divert the funds. The problem is even more significant for old dormant wallets whose public keys are already exposed. It is estimated that 6.7 to 7 million bitcoins could be held in this type of address, including about 1 million BTC often attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto.
For Citi, however, Bitcoin’s main weakness lies in its governance. Moving to quantum-resistant cryptography would require very broad consensus, extensive testing, and possibly a major protocol change. Bitcoin’s conservative model, which contributes to its credibility and stability, also makes rapid changes more difficult. In other words, the question is not only whether a technical solution exists, but whether the community will be able to agree in time to implement it.
Ethereum would be better positioned in this respect, not because it is immune to the quantum threat, but because its governance model and history of regular upgrades could make a transition easier. Proof-of-stake networks also remain exposed, particularly if an attacker were able to control a significant share of the keys linked to staked assets. In the long run, Citi therefore believes that blockchain resilience will depend mainly on adaptability, and proposed improvements such as BIP-360 and BIP-361 will be worth watching on the Bitcoin side.
Iran is reportedly promoting a Bitcoin-settled maritime insurance project for cargo crossing the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian state-affiliated media. The platform, called Hormuz Safe, is said to have been promoted by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards as part of a model studied by Iran’s Economy Ministry. The goal would be to allow the issuance of marine insurance policies and financial responsibility certificates, with estimated potential of more than $10 billion for the country.
According to the reported information, Hormuz Safe would offer fast and cryptographically verifiable insurance coverage for goods moving through the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and nearby maritime areas. Payments would be made in Bitcoin, and coverage would begin as soon as the transaction is confirmed. This initiative comes in a context where Iran had already reportedly considered asking oil tankers seeking to cross the strait to make payments in Bitcoin, in order to make it harder for international sanctions to block or seize the funds.
Despite being technically possible, several observers doubt the real viability of such a model at scale. Bitcoin could facilitate certain payments in sanctioned or marginal trade channels, but it does not solve issues of trust between parties, legal recognition, reinsurance, or support from traditional insurers. The risk of U.S. secondary sanctions could also discourage shipping companies from using such a platform, for fear of being excluded from the global financial system.
Moreover, the transparency of the Bitcoin blockchain could work against this kind of initiative. Even if crypto payments can be faster than the traditional banking channels that Iran struggles to access, the transactions remain public and traceable. Addresses linked to Iran could be identified by blockchain analytics firms, making the associated funds potentially “tainted” in the eyes of exchanges and financial intermediaries. The project therefore illustrates both the appeal of Bitcoin as a tool to bypass sanctions and the practical limits of using it in a highly monitored and heavily regulated environment.
Strategy announced Monday its largest Bitcoin purchase in about a month, after raising nearly $2 billion through the issuance of Stretch preferred shares, also known by the ticker STRC. The company used this capital to acquire 24,869 BTC last week, for a total amount of roughly $2 billion. This new transaction brings its holdings to 843,738 bitcoins, a position recently valued at approximately $64.4 billion.
This financing strategy relies heavily on STRC, a preferred product that currently offers an annual dividend of 11.5%. Investors had to buy these shares before last Friday to qualify for the next monthly cash distribution. Strong demand around that deadline allowed Strategy to issue nearly $2 billion in new preferred shares, which were then used to increase its Bitcoin exposure.
The mechanism is nevertheless attracting growing scrutiny. STRC is designed to trade near its $100 par value, and when the security trades above that level, Strategy can issue new shares to finance additional BTC purchases. This approach had been criticized earlier this year when Bitcoin had fallen to its lowest level in 18 months, but the latest transactions show that this financing model is becoming increasingly central to the company’s treasury operations.
CEO Phong Lee, for his part, highlighted the performance of Strategy’s treasury activities, referring to a “BTC Gain” of $6.6 billion since the beginning of the year. This measure is intended to compare the increase in Bitcoin holdings with the dilutive effect of new share issuances. According to him, the use of “digital credit” is helping accelerate the company’s growth in 2026, as Strategy continues to use its financial instruments to accumulate more Bitcoin.
Bitcoin recently failed to break through the $82,000 zone before coming back to test the $76,000 level. This decline of about 7% triggered nearly $400 million in liquidations on bullish positions over a few days, shaking short-term trader confidence. Despite this pullback, several factors could still support a quick return above $80,000, including Strategy’s massive purchases, the growing fragility of the U.S. bond market, and the possibility of geopolitical easing between the United States and Iran.
Strategy once again played an important role in supporting the market by buying roughly $2 billion worth of Bitcoin over the past week. The company, associated with Michael Saylor, continues to use various financing structures, such as issuing common or preferred shares, to raise capital and increase its BTC reserves. It also took advantage of weaker market conditions to repurchase part of its debt maturing in 2029, which could reduce future dilution and give it more flexibility to finance new purchases.
From a macroeconomic perspective, rising U.S. bond yields also strengthen the case for Bitcoin. The yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed to 4.60%, its highest level in 16 months, as investors demand higher compensation to hold government debt. With a heavy wall of upcoming maturities for the U.S. Treasury, some fear that the Federal Reserve may eventually be forced to intervene more heavily in the bond market, which could weaken the dollar and push capital toward scarce assets such as gold and Bitcoin.
Finally, the geopolitical context remains a key factor. Oil prices have risen sharply because of tensions in the Middle East and difficulties surrounding the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which maintains inflationary pressures and limits the chances of rapid monetary easing. However, an agreement between Washington and Tehran could quickly revive risk appetite and allow Bitcoin to reclaim the $80,000 level. While this scenario is not guaranteed, some analysts believe BTC’s rebound potential remains attractive, especially since U.S. equities are trading near record highs while Bitcoin remains well below its own peak.
The presented information is as of May 19th, 2026, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.
