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The Bitcoin market is experiencing a renewed wave of speculative activity, driven by a marked return of financial leverage, even as prices remain locked in a consolidation phase. Since early February, the cryptocurrency has been trading without a clear directional trend between $62,000 and $71,000, yet many investors continue to anticipate a bullish move. This expectation is reflected in increased positioning in derivatives markets, despite a macroeconomic and sector backdrop that remains uncertain.
Market data show that the spread between spot prices and three-month futures contracts has widened significantly across major platforms such as Binance, OKX, and Deribit. This expansion in the futures basis indicates that traders are increasingly willing to pay a premium for upside exposure, a classic sign of renewed risk appetite. The simultaneous rise in funding rates confirms that long positions are becoming dominant, pointing to a market that is more confident than it was in recent weeks.
This dynamic is largely driven by retail investors. According to Coinbase, its retail client base has shown remarkable resilience, using price pullbacks as opportunities to accumulate bitcoin. Its CEO, Brian Armstrong, noted that the balances held by the majority of customers in February were equal to or higher than those recorded at the end of the previous year. Options markets, however, call for greater caution: the gradual decline in demand for downside protection may reflect either renewed optimism or excessive confidence, a pattern often seen ahead of periods of heightened volatility.
Several analysts also stress that this type of setup carries elevated risks. The improvement in sentiment is not yet supported by sufficiently strong trading volumes, leaving the market vulnerable to sudden shocks. A sharp reversal could trigger a wave of forced liquidations, particularly damaging for investors who entered late using high leverage. In this fragile environment, bitcoin fell by roughly 2.5% over 24 hours and is trading around $68,600, according to CoinGecko data, illustrating the delicate balance between hopes of a rebound and the risk of further correction.
Bitcoin developers have recently taken another step in preparing the network for a potential quantum threat by integrating proposal BIP 360 into the official repository of protocol improvements. This move does not activate any immediate changes but formally opens the door to the study of so-called post-quantum mechanisms. Debate remains intense regarding the urgency of the risk, with some experts pointing to a timeframe of just a few years, while others believe it may still be decades away.
From a technical standpoint, BIP 360 introduces a new output type known as Pay-to-Merkle-Root, designed to eliminate a weakness associated with Taproot, an upgrade deployed in 2021. That weakness stems from the key-spend mechanism, which exposes the public key during certain transactions. According to cryptography researcher Ethan Heilman, such exposure could eventually allow a sufficiently advanced quantum computer to reconstruct the private key and steal funds. The new approach therefore aims to neutralize this vulnerability while preserving the flexibility needed to later integrate quantum-resistant signature schemes.
The timeline question deeply divides the scientific community. The president of the California Institute of Technology, Thomas Rosenbaum, believes that fault-tolerant quantum computers could emerge within five to seven years, citing recent impressive advances in qubit control and stability. By contrast, other researchers, along with guidance from the National Institute of Standards and Technology, suggest that machines capable of posing a real threat to modern cryptography remain distant. This cautious view is shared by Jameson Lopp, head of security at Casa, who considers the required computational power to still be far out of reach.
Beyond the technology itself, some observers highlight a more structural risk: the growing difficulty of evolving a decentralized network like Bitcoin. Any major modification requires broad consensus among developers, miners, businesses, and users—a long and complex process in an ecosystem that naturally tends to ossify over time. For Ethan Heilman, even if the quantum threat remains uncertain, it must be taken seriously. Preparing Bitcoin for such scenarios is less about reacting to fear than about prudent management of existential risks to ensure the network’s long-term resilience.
A recent international study shows that stablecoins are increasingly establishing themselves as everyday financial tools rather than merely trading instruments. Conducted by BVNK in collaboration with Coinbase and Artemis, and based on a YouGov survey of nearly 4,700 people across 15 countries, the study indicates that more than half of crypto users held stablecoins over the past year. A majority even plan to increase their exposure, signaling a gradual shift from speculative use toward more structural adoption of dollar-pegged assets.
Stablecoins now represent a meaningful share of personal savings. On average, holders allocate roughly one-third of their total savings to cryptocurrencies and stablecoins combined. This proportion is even higher in low- and middle-income countries, where local currencies are more volatile and cross-border payment services less reliable. Africa stands out as the region with the highest adoption rates and strongest purchase intentions, echoing projections from Standard Chartered that up to $1 trillion could eventually migrate out of emerging-market bank deposits into dollar-backed stablecoins.
The use of stablecoins extends well beyond simple value storage. A significant share of users spends them directly or converts them quickly into local currency, highlighting their active role in the real economy. Among freelancers, independent workers, and digital-platform sellers, these tokens account for roughly 35% of annual income. Nearly three-quarters say stablecoins improve their ability to work with international clients while significantly reducing transaction fees compared with traditional payment systems. This greater efficiency, combined with enhanced security and global reach, explains their growing role in cross-border payments.
Despite this momentum, several obstacles still hinder mass adoption. Users frequently cite the irreversibility of payments, the complexity of wallets and blockchain networks, and the lack of protections comparable to those offered by traditional financial systems. The report suggests that if these frictions are resolved, stablecoins could evolve toward a role similar to that of a universal digital currency. This transition comes as regulatory frameworks begin to take shape, particularly in the United States, where the adoption of the GENIUS Act under the administration of Donald Trump paves the way for clearer federal regulation of dollar-backed tokens.
Strategy, a company specializing in holding bitcoin as a treasury asset, recently strengthened its position by acquiring an additional 2,486 BTC for roughly $168 million at an average price near $67,700 per coin. This mid-February transaction, disclosed to the Securities and Exchange Commission, brings the firm’s total holdings to more than 717,000 bitcoins. According to its executive chairman and co-founder, Michael Saylor, the entire position was accumulated at an average cost above current market prices, leaving the company with unrealized losses despite the scale of its reserves.
These purchases were financed through the ongoing issuance of common shares and perpetual preferred securities, a strategy that allows Strategy to raise capital without near-term repayment obligations. Several classes of securities coexist, offering different risk-return profiles ranging from more conservative cumulative dividends to convertible instruments that provide potential equity upside. This structure is part of a long-term financing plan aimed at raising up to $84 billion by 2027 to continue accumulating bitcoin.
Despite market volatility, management maintains that the balance sheet remains robust, even in the event of an extreme bitcoin price decline. The company claims it has sufficient assets and liquidity to meet its obligations while gradually converting debt into equity over several years. Analysts at Bernstein and TD Cowen also argue that Strategy’s financial structure is relatively conservative compared with peers, with few major maturities before the end of the decade.
Within the broader universe of publicly listed companies holding bitcoin, Strategy remains by far the largest player, controlling more than 3% of the cryptocurrency’s maximum supply. However, like many similar firms, its share price has fallen sharply from its 2025 highs and now trades below the value of its digital assets. Even so, the stock has recently rebounded, driven by the view that Strategy could benefit disproportionately from a future bitcoin bull cycle over the medium to long term. Strategy also asserts that it can absorb an extreme bitcoin decline to $8,000 while retaining enough assets to cover its net debt of roughly $6 billion.
The overall mood in the cryptocurrency market has deteriorated sharply, reaching levels of pessimism rarely seen. According to analysts at Matrixport, investor sentiment is now firmly in extreme-fear territory, a configuration that has historically coincided with periods of stabilization or short-term rebounds. This reading reflects widespread fatigue among both buyers and sellers, even though further downside remains possible in the near term.
Matrixport’s internal indicators suggest the market may be approaching an inflection point. Its sentiment index applied to bitcoin shows that the most durable bottoms tend to form when the 21-day moving average drops below zero and then turns higher—a signal that is currently in place. This transition is typically interpreted as a sign that selling pressure is being exhausted and that the market is beginning to absorb excess liquidation from recent weeks.
This assessment is reinforced by other widely followed gauges. The Fear and Greed Index published by Alternative.me is also hovering near its lowest levels since 2022, reflecting extreme investor fear. Historically, such deeply negative readings have followed sharp corrections, notably in the summer of 2024 and the fall of 2025—periods that were later followed by technical rebounds, even if modest.
From a statistical perspective, additional oversold signals are also emerging. Frank Holmes, chairman of mining company Hive, notes that bitcoin is currently trading well below its short-term average, a deviation rarely observed in recent years. According to him, such extremes have historically favored rebounds in the weeks that follow. Despite ongoing market anxiety, he believes long-term fundamentals remain strong, pointing to the potential for recovery once the capitulation phase has run its course.
The presented information is as of February 17th, 2026, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.
