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Bitcoin continues to trade below the $90,000 threshold amid a broadly cautious environment ahead of the next decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve. After a strong start to the year, momentum has faded and prices have retreated toward the $85,000–$88,000 range, reflecting a consolidation phase rather than a true trend reversal. Trading volumes remain moderate, and market indicators point to a more defensive investor stance, marked by heightened risk management and increased sensitivity to macroeconomic developments.
This fragility is also evident on the institutional side. Cryptocurrency investment products have seen significant capital outflows, particularly U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, coinciding with the recent price pullback. The decline in institutional demand has contributed to a double-digit correction from the mid-January peak, illustrating a temporary disengagement rather than a structural loss of interest.
In derivatives markets, positioning mainly reflects short-term hedging strategies. Implied volatility has risen at near-term maturities, signaling that market participants are protecting against sharp moves tied to upcoming events, without fundamentally reassessing medium- or long-term prospects. Further out on the curve, expectations remain relatively stable, suggesting that the broader market framework is largely unchanged despite elevated short-term noise.
The macroeconomic backdrop continues to weigh heavily on risk appetite. The prospect of higher interest rates for longer forces Bitcoin to compete with once again attractive risk-free yields, reshaping its appeal in investors’ portfolios. Added to this are geopolitical tensions, political uncertainty, and a renewed preference for safe-haven assets such as gold. In this environment, consensus expects little immediate change from the Fed, and Bitcoin could remain volatile but range-bound, moving in line with shifts in liquidity and market sentiment.
Markets are almost unanimous in expecting the Federal Reserve to leave policy rates unchanged at this week’s meeting. After several consecutive rate cuts, the central bank appears intent on pausing, in line with signals delivered in recent months. This decision is already largely priced in, meaning the announcement itself should have only a limited impact on both the dollar and Bitcoin.
Attention will therefore focus primarily on Jerome Powell’s remarks and on how this monetary pause is framed. If the Fed chair adopts a cautious tone and emphasizes lingering inflation risks, expectations for future rate cuts could be scaled back, weighing on risk assets. Conversely, messaging that suggests the pause is temporary and that easing could resume later in the year would be supportive for Bitcoin and equity markets. Several major institutions, including Morgan Stanley, lean toward this latter scenario, although JPMorgan remains far more restrictive in its outlook.
Powell will also need to justify the status quo against the backdrop of strong U.S. economic performance, an exercise that could support the dollar. According to ING, it may be difficult for the Fed to argue that financial conditions are overly tight, which could temper hopes for a rapid resumption of rate cuts. A firmer dollar would, in turn, tend to limit Bitcoin’s upside, as the cryptocurrency often struggles when the greenback strengthens.
Finally, a range of political and macroeconomic issues could surface during the press conference, including Donald Trump’s housing affordability measures and their potentially inflationary effects. Plans for large-scale purchases of mortgage-backed securities could boost short-term housing demand and intensify price pressures, as highlighted by Allianz Investment Management. Added to this are questions surrounding tariffs, the Fed’s independence, and recent volatility in bond markets—all factors that could influence Powell’s tone and, by extension, the reaction of both Bitcoin and the dollar.
The sharp surge in gold, now above $5,000 an ounce, alongside persistent uncertainty around the U.S. regulatory framework, is shaping two very different trajectories for crypto markets, according to Bitwise. Its chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, believes these twin dynamics—the search for stores of value outside state-controlled systems and ongoing political ambiguity—will influence both adoption and price behavior in digital assets.
Hougan argues that gold’s dramatic rise reflects growing distrust in fiat currencies and traditional institutions. A significant portion of gold’s current valuation has been created only recently, symptomatic of years of excessive money creation, mounting debt, and currency debasement. This trend underscores a growing desire among investors, including institutions, to hold assets that are less dependent on political decisions or centralized counterparties.
In this context, the core attributes of cryptocurrencies are gaining credibility. Assets such as Bitcoin enable direct ownership without intermediaries, while networks like Ethereum or Solana operate under rules that are difficult to alter unilaterally. Concepts sometimes seen as abstract—self-custody, censorship resistance, and trust minimization—could thus become central arguments as confidence in existing structures erodes.
At the same time, Hougan stresses that the regulatory outlook remains a decisive factor. Uncertainty surrounding the adoption of the Clarity Act raises the risk of a prolonged phase in which markets demand tangible proof of real-world use rather than promises. Should favorable legislation be enacted, it could trigger a significant revaluation of the sector. Failing that, the market would likely progress more slowly, in step with the concrete integration of crypto into the broader economy, making this period a true inflection point for the industry.
Hardware wallet manufacturer Ledger is reportedly considering a U.S. initial public offering that could value the company at around $4 billion. To lead the deal, the firm is said to have enlisted major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, and Barclays. The project reflects renewed interest in crypto infrastructure, particularly secure custody solutions, which have become strategically important for institutional investors.
This initiative follows shortly after BitGo’s listing in New York, the first crypto IPO of 2026. However, the environment remains mixed: while some sector players have seen sharp gains after going public, most crypto-related stocks have declined in recent months, tracking the broader pullback in digital asset markets despite resilient performance in traditional equity indices.
A key advantage for Ledger lies in the growing emphasis on secure asset custody, especially within a more structured regulatory environment in the United States under the Trump administration. The influx of institutional capital and tighter rules around digital asset custody are supporting demand for self-custody solutions. Although the company remains exposed to consumer hardware cycles, many experts believe its infrastructure-focused positioning makes it more resilient than more speculative segments of the crypto industry.
Banking giant UBS is reportedly preparing to allow a segment of its wealthy private banking clients to trade Bitcoin and Ether, starting in Switzerland. The initiative would primarily target ultra-high-net-worth individuals, whose preferences play a central role in shaping the strategy of the world’s largest wealth manager, which oversees several trillion dollars in assets.
This gradual opening to cryptocurrencies reflects evolving expectations among large fortunes, which are increasingly seeking regulated exposure to digital assets rather than mass-market adoption. The project is still being finalized, but Switzerland would serve as the initial launchpad, with a possible expansion to the Asia-Pacific region, where demand for such services is also growing.
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao believes that 2026 could mark a major turning point in Bitcoin’s evolution. In his view, the cryptocurrency could enter a “supercycle,” breaking away from the traditional four-year pattern historically linked to halvings. He attributes this potential shift to a profound change in the United States’ stance toward digital assets, which could encourage other countries to follow suit.
Without providing a specific price target, Zhao remains confident that the long-term trajectory is clearly upward. Over a five- to ten-year horizon, he sees Bitcoin’s appreciation as highly likely, even if short-term fluctuations remain unpredictable. He also notes that when Bitcoin enters a sustained bullish phase, the broader crypto market typically benefits as well.
During a public appearance in Davos, Zhao also sought to dispel any ambiguity regarding a potential connection with Donald Trump. He stated that he has never had a personal or professional relationship with the U.S. president and rejected the notion that the administration’s pro-crypto stance or certain financial dealings influenced the presidential pardon he received. According to Zhao, such associations stem more from misinterpretation than from established facts.
Zhao acknowledged that the current political climate in the United States is favorable for the entire crypto sector, but emphasized that this environment benefits all crypto businesses rather than Binance specifically. Reflecting briefly on his recent past, he expressed gratitude for having moved beyond his 2024 conviction and incarceration, saying he now intends to focus on the long-term development of the digital asset ecosystem.
Several analysts believe that Bitcoin may be approaching a potential bullish turning point following the emergence of rarely observed technical signals. One such indicator involves a specific Stochastic RSI crossover tied to U.S. and Chinese government bond yields—an event that has occurred only a handful of times in the past and has preceded strong price advances. Its most recent appearance, in late 2020, foreshadowed the major rally seen in 2021.
Source: Coinvo Trading
Additional macroeconomic factors reinforce this cautiously optimistic interpretation. Some analysts are closely watching the U.S. dollar, suggesting that a pronounced weakening could act as a catalyst for a Bitcoin rebound. Moreover, the current divergence between gold—continuing to set new highs—and Bitcoin is not viewed as alarming by certain observers: historically, gold tends to move first, while Bitcoin often trades sideways for a period before breaking out more forcefully.
The presented information is as of January 27th, 2026, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.
