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Crypto Bulletin – Week 422

The cryptocurrency market saw a sharp correction, with bitcoin falling back to around $91,000 after wiping out the entire rebound recorded the previous week. Selling pressure was triggered mainly during the Asian trading session and unfolded against a broader backdrop of risk aversion, as futures on major U.S. equity indices dropped sharply. In the background, renewed trade tensions between the United States and the European Union, linked to the Greenland issue, dampened appetite for risk assets, while gold and silver continued their climb toward new highs.

This rapid price deterioration was accompanied by a significant unwinding of positions in derivatives markets. More than $360 million in futures contracts were liquidated within 24 hours, hitting long positions the hardest. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility moved higher again, signaling increased demand for hedging instruments. In the options market, put premiums continue to exceed call premiums, reflecting persistent fears of further downside.

On-chain data highlight a clear divergence between the behavior of large cryptocurrency holders and retail investors. While retail participants continue to reduce their exposure, capital-heavy players are gradually increasing their positions in several major assets, including bitcoin, ether, and the Chainlink token. This divergence points to a phase of strategic accumulation, often associated with a long-term outlook, in a market environment still marked by hesitation and volatility.

On the Ethereum side, a symbolic milestone has been reached, with nearly 30% of the total supply now locked in staking, representing more than $120 billion. This trend has been reinforced by institutional initiatives, notably from Bitmine Immersion, which recently added several hundred million dollars’ worth of ETH to its staked positions. Other large withdrawals of ether from exchanges further confirm this reduction in available supply, often interpreted as a sign of growing confidence in the network and its future role.

Bitcoin itself is following a similar pattern. The increase in holdings within institutional custody wallets reflects sustained interest despite recent price pressure. This gradual accumulation could help establish a medium-term floor, even if it does not guarantee an immediate trend reversal. In the short term, the market remains torn between these relatively constructive underlying signals and a more cautious, even bearish, sentiment among speculative players.

An unusual move has also caught the attention of market observers: a bitcoin wallet that had remained completely inactive for more than twelve years suddenly transferred 909 BTC, now valued at over $84 million. These bitcoins were acquired in 2013, when the unit price was below $7, representing an extraordinary unrealized gain of more than 13,000%.

Such “wake-ups” of long-dormant wallets are not insignificant. Historically, this type of activity tends to increase after strong bitcoin rallies, when long-term holders sitting on substantial gains reorganize their holdings. Bitcoin’s move beyond key symbolic thresholds over the past year has revived several dormant addresses, fueling discussion and speculation on social media.

For many investors, these transfers immediately raise concerns about potential profit-taking that could weigh on prices. The mere possibility that a major holder might sell such a large amount of bitcoin is often enough to generate short-term nervousness, even without concrete confirmation.

In this case, however, none of the transferred bitcoins have been sent to exchanges. The absence of flows toward selling venues suggests that the move may simply reflect fund consolidation or enhanced security measures rather than an imminent liquidation. As it stands, the event appears more symbolic than alarming for the market.

The New York Stock Exchange announced the development of a new blockchain-based trading platform dedicated to tokenized stocks and exchange-traded funds. Operated by its parent company, Intercontinental Exchange, the infrastructure aims to enable near-instant transactions and settlement, available continuously, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. The project marks a major evolution for a historic institution seeking to adapt its markets to emerging technological standards.

The future platform would combine the NYSE’s existing trading systems with blockchain-based post-trade mechanisms. It is designed to operate across multiple blockchain networks, although none have yet been officially named. Investors would be able to trade both tokenized versions of traditional securities and natively issued tokenized assets, while retaining associated economic and governance rights such as dividends and shareholder voting.

To support this transition, the group is working with major banking institutions, including BNY and Citi, to manage tokenized deposits and fund transfers outside traditional banking hours and across different time zones. The project’s launch remains subject to regulatory approval, and no specific timeline has been announced.

This initiative is part of a broader trend toward the tokenization of financial assets, which has become one of the dominant themes in the blockchain ecosystem. Several major industry players see it as the next stage in market infrastructure, including BlackRock. In recent months, Robinhood has already offered tokenized equities to its European clients, while Coinbase plans to integrate such products in the near term, illustrating the accelerating convergence between traditional finance and on-chain technologies.

Vitalik Buterin believes that decentralized autonomous organizations need to evolve far beyond their current form, which is largely based on token-holder voting. In his view, this dominant model works in theory but remains cumbersome, easily manipulated, and too closely mirrors the flaws of traditional human politics. This helps explain the growing skepticism surrounding DAOs, even though they were one of the original inspirations behind the Ethereum project.

Buterin emphasizes that several key use cases require far more robust governance structures. He points in particular to oracles used in decentralized finance, which he considers insufficiently secure, as well as on-chain dispute resolution for complex applications such as insurance. Other needs include managing reliable reference lists (secure contracts, standard interfaces, verified addresses), the ability to quickly mobilize funds for short-term projects, and the long-term maintenance of initiatives after their founders have stepped away.

According to him, two major obstacles hinder the improvement of DAOs: the lack of privacy and decision fatigue. Without privacy protections, governance becomes a social game exposed to pressure and influence strategies. Conversely, when participants are asked to make decisions too frequently, engagement quickly declines, both in terms of participation and awareness of issues.

To overcome these limitations, Buterin points to the role of zero-knowledge proofs in enhancing privacy, as well as the measured use of artificial intelligence to reduce decision-making burdens without replacing human judgment. He also stresses the importance of embedding communication tools—forums and dedicated spaces—at the very core of DAOs. In his view, this is the price to pay for ensuring that Ethereum’s decentralization and robustness are truly reflected in the applications built on top of it.

Several technical and on-chain indicators suggest that bitcoin may be entering a phase potentially favorable to buyers, provided that the $90,000 level is maintained. After a period of pressure, buyers appear determined to defend this key threshold, widely seen as a major psychological pivot for the market. This stabilization comes as some signals historically associated with price recoveries begin to reemerge.

Among them, the Hash Ribbons indicator, which tracks changes in miners’ hash rate, has turned positive again. This signal typically appears after a phase of miner capitulation followed by recovery, a context that in the past has often coincided with attractive long-term entry points. Analysts from Capriole Investments and On-Chain Mind note that such configurations frequently mark the end of forced selling tied to miners’ operating costs.

Market sentiment also appears to be improving. The Fear and Greed Index is showing a bullish crossover in its moving averages, a pattern that, according to CryptoQuant data, usually occurs after prolonged phases of caution or fear. Historically, these signals have more often preceded consolidation followed by price increases than market tops, reinforcing the idea of a potential medium-term rebound.

A debate is currently unfolding among analysts about bitcoin’s future trajectory: could it experience a parabolic surge similar to the one recently seen in gold? According to Matthew Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, the dynamics at work in Bitcoin ETFs closely resemble those that preceded gold’s surge. He notes that since their launch, these products have been absorbing more than 100% of new supply, a phenomenon comparable to the massive accumulation of gold by central banks after 2022, which eventually drained available supply and propelled prices higher.

Historically, gold experienced several years of sustained buying pressure before sellers ran out, triggering a dramatic rally. Some observers believe bitcoin could follow a similar path: a prolonged phase of supply absorption followed by an explosive move. This sequence—“gold first, bitcoin next”—has already been observed in the past, with the digital asset often going on to outperform after major rallies in the precious metal.

Other analysts urge caution, however, pointing out that the two markets are built on very different structures. Tim Sun of HashKey Group notes that gold buyers are primarily central banks and sovereign wealth funds, with very long investment horizons and little leverage. By contrast, even though Bitcoin ETFs attract institutional investors, bitcoin is still treated as a risk asset, with higher turnover, leverage, and therefore greater volatility.

Finally, bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions remains a decisive factor. While gold has benefited from geopolitical concerns and doubts about fiat currency credibility, bitcoin remains closely tied to global liquidity and U.S. monetary policy. A tightening stance from the Federal Reserve could therefore disrupt any overly smooth bullish trajectory. The central question for the coming months thus remains open: will bitcoin faithfully follow gold’s scarcity-driven model to a parabolic peak, or will it carve out a more uneven path marked by bouts of high volatility?

The presented information is as of January 20th, 2026, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.