Client Access 
Communications
Fidelity is taking a measured but generally optimistic stance on the cryptocurrency market. In its Q2 2026 “Signals” report, the firm suggests that the market may be in the process of stabilizing after a significant correction phase. Several fundamental indicators are improving, pointing to the possibility that a bottom is gradually forming.
Among the key metrics being monitored, investors’ unrealized profitability has turned positive again for the first time since the beginning of the year, while both market momentum and network activity are also showing encouraging trends. In addition, bitcoin dominance is rising, reflecting a shift of capital toward more liquid assets — a pattern that has historically preceded renewed interest in altcoins. Although negative funding rates in futures markets may initially appear bearish, they largely reflect hedging strategies implemented by institutional players.
Elsewhere in the market, some divergences are emerging. Assets such as Ethereum and Solana continue to show strong network activity despite lagging price performance, which Fidelity interprets as a constructive medium-term signal. This suggests that the underlying interest in these protocols remains intact, even if market valuations have yet to fully reflect it.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have also extended a notable streak of capital inflows, reaching nine consecutive days — the longest since September 2025. Over that period, roughly $2.1 billion has been invested, with a significant contribution from BlackRock’s IBIT fund, which recorded its best week in six months. On a weekly basis, the trend remains strong, with multiple consecutive weeks of solid inflows, highlighting sustained institutional interest.
A key White House advisor on crypto recently hinted that a major announcement regarding the strategic bitcoin reserve under Donald Trump’s administration could be made soon. Patrick Witt, who leads the President’s Council of Advisors for Digital Assets, indicated that meaningful progress has been made behind the scenes and that concrete developments could be unveiled in the coming weeks.
Since the signing of an executive order last year, the administration has been working to structure this strategic reserve, largely composed of bitcoin already held by the government through criminal or civil forfeitures. The goal is to better manage and safeguard these assets on the federal balance sheet. However, because executive orders lack long-term durability, lawmakers are seeking to anchor the initiative in legislation.
In that context, U.S. lawmakers are attempting to pass a bill to formalize the initiative. An initial proposal, which includes the gradual acquisition of a large amount of bitcoin over several years using budget-neutral strategies, is currently under revision and may be renamed. The objective is to transform an executive decision into a lasting legal framework while modernizing national reserve management in the digital asset era.
According to Witt, the executive branch could take a significant step forward in the near term, regardless of the legislative timeline. Such a move would likely be seen as a strong signal supporting the integration of bitcoin into the United States’ financial strategy.
A well-known bitcoin developer, Paul Sztorc, has also introduced a proposal likely to spark controversy. His idea involves launching a hard fork called eCash — a new blockchain derived from Bitcoin — in which a portion of early coins, often associated with Satoshi Nakamoto, would be redistributed to new investors. The stated goal is to revitalize the ecosystem by attracting capital and increasing engagement around the new chain.
In practice, this initiative would not alter the original Bitcoin network but instead create a modified copy of its history. Roughly 500,000 bitcoins believed to be linked to early mining activity would be reassigned in this new system. At the same time, current bitcoin holders would receive an equivalent amount of tokens on the eCash network, which they could keep, sell, or ignore.
The concept draws inspiration from David Chaum’s early eCash project from the 1990s, a precursor to modern digital currencies focused on privacy. However, the proposal has been met with skepticism. Some industry experts, including Jameson Lopp, view it more as a provocative marketing strategy than a credible technical evolution.
Historically, major blockchain splits — such as those that created Bitcoin Cash and Ethereum Classic — have struggled to match the long-term success of their parent networks. Despite this, Sztorc argues that his project could bring improvements in scalability, privacy, and innovation. Whether it gains traction or remains a niche experiment remains to be seen.
Meanwhile, Strategy continues to aggressively accumulate bitcoin. Led by executive chairman Michael Saylor, the company recently purchased an additional 3,273 BTC for about $255 million, bringing its total holdings to over 818,000 bitcoins — a substantial share of the network’s maximum supply.
These holdings are valued in the tens of billions of dollars, with an average acquisition cost slightly below current market prices. A significant portion of these purchases has been financed through the issuance of common stock (MSTR), as part of an ongoing capital-raising program. The company still has considerable capacity to continue this strategy in the coming years.
According to analysts at Bernstein, the broader crypto market is now showing much stronger fundamentals. As bitcoin approaches higher levels, the downturn seen around $60,000 appears to be behind it. Multiple indicators are improving simultaneously, supporting the idea of asymmetric upside — meaning a more favorable risk-reward profile for investors.
Institutional capital remains a major driver, with new distribution channels expanding access and strengthening the investor base. At the same time, a large portion of bitcoin supply remains inactive, reducing selling pressure. The ecosystem is also maturing, with stablecoin adoption growing independently of price cycles and tokenized real-world assets expanding rapidly.
In this environment, Bernstein expects a longer and more structurally robust bull cycle than in the past. While risks such as quantum computing remain, the industry is believed to have sufficient time to adapt. Overall, the current trajectory suggests a more durable phase of growth supported by stronger economic and technological foundations.
Bitcoin is currently trading in a critical zone, struggling to break above $79,000 but holding steady above $76,000. A large cluster of short positions — around $1.4 billion — has formed near $80,000, raising the possibility of a short squeeze if prices move higher.
Macroeconomic factors such as Federal Reserve policy shifts or rising inflation expectations could act as catalysts. If bitcoin breaks above $80,000, forced liquidations of short positions could accelerate the rally.
At the same time, improving liquidity conditions are supporting the outlook. Rising stablecoin inflows to exchanges like Binance suggest that fresh capital is returning to the market, ready to be deployed. Combined with technical signals and on-chain data, this strengthens the case for a continued recovery, though confirmation will depend on key levels being decisively broken in the weeks ahead.
The presented information is as of April 28th, 2026, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.
