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Bitcoin briefly broke above the $90,000 mark as the New Year approached, in a low-liquidity environment typical of year-end trading. After rising by roughly 3% over a 24-hour period, the cryptocurrency quickly slipped back below that level, confirming the range-bound behavior that characterized the entire month of December. Analysts broadly agree that this move was not driven by a major fundamental catalyst, but rather by technical dynamics.
According to several market observers, reclaiming the $90,000 level — widely viewed as a key resistance — likely triggered short covering and momentum-driven buying. Following a consolidation phase, certain technical levels flipped into support, enabling a mechanical rebound. That said, the setup remains fragile, as Bitcoin has spent recent weeks confined to a relatively narrow range between approximately $86,500 and $90,000.
This period of stagnation can be partly explained by sizable outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, estimated at over $1 billion, driven by tax-loss harvesting strategies and broader year-end risk reduction. Despite this, market sentiment has shown tentative signs of improvement: the crypto Fear and Greed Index has moved from “extreme fear” to “fear,” pointing to a gradual stabilization in confidence, even as liquidity conditions remain thin.
In the short term, market participants are watching whether Bitcoin can sustainably hold above $90,000, with trading volumes expected to stay subdued until early January. Over a longer horizon, some investors argue that cryptocurrencies appear undervalued relative to U.S. equities or precious metals. Attention is already shifting toward potential future catalysts, such as renewed ETF inflows, regulatory progress, and the direction of U.S. monetary policy, all of which could reignite institutional adoption.
Recent Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin’s stabilization around the $80,000 level has primarily benefited large holders, commonly referred to as “whales.” Since the late-November low, these major network participants have been the dominant buyers, while prices have gradually worked back toward the $90,000 area. Their behavior stands in sharp contrast to that of smaller investors.
Among the various wallet cohorts, holders controlling between 1,000 and 10,000 bitcoins clearly stand out. This group exhibits an accumulation score near the maximum, signaling sustained and consistent buying over recent weeks. The metric, which analyzes net flows over roughly a two-week period, suggests that these participants view the $80,000 zone as an attractive price level that is rarely revisited for extended periods.
By contrast, holders of fewer than 1,000 bitcoins are showing pronounced signs of distribution. Their behavior aligns with a deteriorated psychological backdrop, as the crypto Fear and Greed Index has remained entrenched in “fear” or “extreme fear” territory for an extended period. This selling pressure is widely interpreted as capitulation, a common feature of prolonged uncertainty.
Meanwhile, wallets holding more than 10,000 bitcoins had also accumulated aggressively when Bitcoin dipped below $80,000 in late November. Although their pace of buying has slowed, they have not yet shifted into net selling. This behavior differs markedly from prior market peaks, particularly around the $100,000 level, when distribution by large holders was far more pronounced.
Looking ahead to 2026, Grayscale believes that the evolution of crypto markets will be driven primarily by regulatory developments rather than concerns surrounding quantum computing. According to the asset manager, the central issue for investors is whether the United States can deliver a clear and coherent legal framework for digital assets — an effort that could come to fruition as early as next year.
Grayscale’s analysts expect a bipartisan U.S. crypto market structure bill to be adopted. While certain technical details remain under negotiation, the overall direction appears set: aligning crypto regulations more closely with traditional financial market rules, including transparency requirements, clearer asset classifications, and safeguards governing insider behavior. Such clarity could remove significant barriers to institutional participation.
A harmonized regulatory framework, in the U.S. and potentially in other major jurisdictions, would likely encourage broader adoption by financial institutions. Firms could become more willing to hold digital assets on their balance sheets and transact directly on blockchains. This shift would mark the beginning of a more institutionally driven phase for the sector, supported by greater legal certainty and sustained on-chain activity.
Zcash’s shielded supply has remained stable at around 23%, following a sharp increase from roughly 8% at the start of 2025. While speculative enthusiasm around the ZEC token has cooled, usage metrics tied to shielded transactions have held firm. This suggests that users who adopted privacy features continue to rely on them rather than abandoning them once the initial excitement faded. This consolidation follows a period of rapid growth, when privacy concerns dominated discussions across the crypto ecosystem. The persistence of elevated usage levels indicates that interest in privacy is now rooted in practical use cases rather than short-lived speculative momentum. Notably, the Rivemont crypto fund recently initiated a modest position in ZEC.
Caroline Ellison, former co-CEO of Alameda Research, is scheduled to be released from federal custody on January 21, 2026. Sentenced to two years in prison for her role in the collapse of the FTX ecosystem, she was transferred from a federal prison in Connecticut to community confinement in the fall of 2025, marking the final phase of her sentence.
Ellison pleaded guilty in late 2022 to multiple fraud and conspiracy charges linked to massive losses suffered by FTX customers. Her close cooperation with authorities — including pivotal testimony against Sam Bankman-Fried — played a key role in the conviction of the FTX founder, who received a 25-year prison sentence. At sentencing in September 2024, the court also ordered Ellison to forfeit $11 billion.
Her early release, roughly ten months ahead of the full term, likely reflects credits for good behavior and the value of her assistance in investigations and asset recovery efforts. The head of the FTX bankruptcy process emphasized that her cooperation helped recover hundreds of millions of dollars for creditors.
At the same time, Ellison agreed to a ten-year ban on serving as an officer or director of publicly traded companies or crypto-related firms, and she will remain under supervised release after leaving custody. Meanwhile, Sam Bankman-Fried continues to seek a presidential pardon while appealing his conviction, though his projected release date currently remains set for 2044.
After a brief pause, Strategy — the Bitcoin treasury company led by Michael Saylor — resumed its accumulation by purchasing 1,229 BTC for approximately $109 million. The transaction, carried out between December 22 and December 28, marked a return to active buying, once again funded through the issuance of common shares under its at-the-market program. Saylor had subtly signaled the move beforehand with a cryptic message hinting at renewed Bitcoin purchases.
As a result, Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings now stand at roughly 672,500 BTC, acquired at an average cost of around $75,000 per coin. At prices near $87,000, this position represents a market value well above the company’s total investment, generating several billion dollars in unrealized gains. At the same time, the company did not sell any of its various classes of preferred stock, preserving substantial financial flexibility for future initiatives.
The renewed buying followed a period of balance-sheet reinforcement, during which Strategy increased its U.S. dollar cash reserves to more than $2 billion. Intended to cover debt servicing and dividend payments, this reserve has been interpreted by some analysts as a cautious stance ahead of a potentially prolonged crypto downturn. Others view it as a sign of financial strength, enhancing the firm’s ability to withstand periods of heightened volatility.
Long-term Bitcoin holders have also recently shifted their behavior, moving from net selling to net accumulation for the first time since summer. On-chain data shows that entities holding Bitcoin for at least 155 days have added roughly 33,000 BTC on a net 30-day basis. This reversal helps ease one of the most significant sources of selling pressure seen in recent months.
This change follows an exceptionally heavy period of distribution. During the current correction, long-term holders sold more than 1 million BTC — the largest such event since 2019. This wave of selling, which coincided with a market decline of over 30%, was a major contributor to the downturn, alongside forced selling by miners facing deteriorating profitability.
The return to accumulation is partly explained by the maturation of more recent buyers. After roughly six months of holding, these investors transition into the long-term holder category, and their purchases are now outweighing sales. This dynamic suggests a gradual stabilization of the investor base, with a growing core of holders less inclined to sell in the current market phase.
As 2026 approaches, several traders believe that Bitcoin’s recent pullback may be masking a broader bullish setup. After correcting by roughly 30% from its early-October all-time high, technical signals point to a potential rebound. Some analysts reference a recurring year-end “bear trap” scenario, in which a temporary breakdown triggers selling before a sharp reversal early in the New Year.
Several factors support this optimistic outlook. Selling pressure from long-term holders appears to be easing, while spot Bitcoin ETF outflows have slowed considerably. On the macro front, expectations of monetary easing and improving liquidity conditions could extend the bull cycle beyond traditional patterns. In this environment, some observers argue that the classic four-year cycle is losing relevance as institutional adoption via ETFs and corporate treasuries reshapes market structure.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently trading within a symmetrical triangle — a consolidation pattern often preceding a directional move. A decisive close above the $90,000 zone would likely be interpreted as a bullish continuation signal, with a technical target near $107,000, implying upside potential of just over 20% from current levels.
Finally, several financial institutions share a constructive medium-term outlook. Forecasts calling for six-figure prices over the next twelve months are largely driven by expectations of renewed institutional demand. While these signals do not guarantee a new all-time high in the near term, they reinforce the idea that a meaningful rebound could develop early in the year, setting the stage for a bullish scenario in 2026.
We extend our best wishes of health, happiness, and prosperity to all our readers as the New Year approaches.
The presented information is as of December 30th, 2025, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.
