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Bitcoin is trading below the $90,000 threshold in a year-end environment marked by thinner liquidity and cautious investor sentiment. After a failed recovery attempt earlier in the week, the market pulled back again, dragging major cryptocurrencies lower. This inability to extend rebounds is reinforcing a defensive tone, where corrections remain limited but recurring, while total market capitalization slips back toward the $3 trillion level.
Financial flows confirm this nervousness. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows, signaling a temporary pullback, while certain products linked to Ethereum, Solana, and XRP continued to attract capital. This divergence points to selective repositioning rather than a clear return of risk appetite, in a context where investors appear reluctant to increase Bitcoin exposure in the short term.
The key event of the week remains the unusually large year-end options expiry, whose scale could amplify volatility. Hundreds of thousands of contracts are set to expire around key price levels, increasing the market’s sensitivity to sharp moves. Although volatility indicators remain relatively contained, declining market depth and the unwinding of leveraged positions raise the risk of sudden swings, both upward and downward.
In the background, gold’s strong rally contrasts with Bitcoin’s struggle to find clear direction, highlighting renewed interest in traditional safe havens as year-end approaches. Political and monetary uncertainty is reinforcing this cautious stance, even as analysts note that price moves during the Christmas week often fade once liquidity returns in January. For now, Bitcoin is heading toward one of its weakest year-end quarters in several years, reflecting a market waiting for new catalysts.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin remains locked in a narrow range and continues to lag well behind its 2025 highs. Its year-to-date performance is still negative, and rebound attempts look unconvincing in an environment where early-year optimism has given way to disappointment. Seasonal data confirms this weakness: the current fourth quarter ranks among the poorest in recent years outside of pronounced bear markets. However, a well-known seasonal factor in equity markets could offer some support. Historically, the final week of December and the first few days of January are often marked by rising U.S. equities, a phenomenon commonly referred to as the “Santa Claus rally.” A repeat of this pattern could improve market sentiment and indirectly benefit Bitcoin.
Long-term statistics show that the S&P 500 has frequently advanced during this festive period, with a majority of positive years and remarkable consistency over several decades. After two disappointing year-end periods in a row, the odds favor a rebound in equities heading into the new year. This dynamic is increasingly relevant for Bitcoin, whose price behavior has become more closely correlated with stock markets due to the growing presence of institutional investors via ETFs.
Bitcoin’s own historical performance during this period is mixed. Some years have seen strong year-end rallies, while others experienced notable pullbacks. On average, returns have been positive, but they vary widely depending on the macroeconomic backdrop and market structure of each cycle. This uncertainty explains why a seasonal rebound remains more of a hope than a certainty.
U.S. financial market regulators have proposed settlement agreements targeting several former senior executives of FTX and Alameda Research, all of whom were close to Sam Bankman-Fried. These agreements, submitted to a federal court in New York, follow their key role in the investigation and their testimony against the former exchange chief, who has since been criminally convicted.
Without formally admitting wrongdoing, the former executives agreed to strict future limitations. These include prohibitions against violating securities laws, restrictions on certain financial activities, and, most notably, temporary bans from serving as officers or directors of publicly traded companies. The duration of these bans varies by individual and can extend up to a decade.
Caroline Ellison, former head of Alameda Research, received the harshest professional sanction, with a ten-year ban from holding leadership roles at public companies. Other former executives, including Gary Wang and Nishad Singh, face similar restrictions for shorter periods. Their close cooperation with authorities allowed them to avoid lengthy prison sentences, with judges praising their contributions to resolving the case and advancing the bankruptcy process.
These settlements form part of the broader legal dismantling of the FTX group, following Sam Bankman-Fried’s 25-year prison sentence for the massive misuse of customer funds. Despite the trial outcomes and admissions by several former associates, the ex-CEO continues to contest the verdict, maintaining that the company was not insolvent—a claim largely rejected by regulators and the courts.
As the holidays approach, Strategy has temporarily paused its Bitcoin accumulation program. After two weeks of heavy buying, the company chose to strengthen its cash reserves by adding nearly $750 million. This move brings its liquidity buffer to just over $2.1 billion, while its Bitcoin holdings remain unchanged at a record level of more than 670,000 coins.
This dollar reserve, established earlier in December, is part of a new financial structure designed to balance Bitcoin ownership with operational flexibility. It is intended to support future dividend payments and provide a cushion during periods of volatility. Despite this short-term shift toward cash, the long-term strategy remains firmly centered on Bitcoin, which the company continues to view as the core asset of its balance sheet and financing strategy.
At the same time, Strategy is engaged in a dispute with MSCI over the composition rules of major equity indices. The firm is challenging a proposal that would exclude companies whose digital assets exceed half of total assets, arguing that such an approach would introduce excessive instability into index construction. While the debate is ongoing, the company has retained its place in the Nasdaq 100, pending a final decision expected in mid-January.
More broadly, the number of publicly listed companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets continues to grow, with nearly 200 now exposed to the asset. Nevertheless, despite the accumulation seen in 2025, the share prices of these firms remain under pressure. Strategy is no exception, with its stock posting a significant decline for the year, highlighting the persistent gap between Bitcoin’s relative price stability and the market valuation of companies heavily tied to it.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, is forecasting a dramatic path for Bitcoin in early 2026. According to him, the cryptocurrency could surge to $200,000 by March, before correcting and stabilizing at a level well above $124,000. For the remainder of the current year, however, he expects a consolidation phase, with Bitcoin trading within a broad range between $80,000 and $100,000.
The main driver behind this outlook would be a recent shift in U.S. monetary policy. Hayes points to “Reserve Management Purchases” (RMP), a new tool referenced by the Federal Reserve, which he likens to an indirect form of quantitative easing. In his view, this mechanism effectively injects liquidity into the financial system—an environment that has historically favored scarce assets such as Bitcoin, gold, and certain mining stocks.
Following this logic, Hayes believes markets will ultimately interpret RMP as disguised monetary stimulus, triggering a sharp revaluation of risk assets early in the year. He expects enthusiasm to peak around March, when expectations surrounding the impact of these policies would be at their highest. After that point, Bitcoin would pull back to form a higher floor, reflecting sustained adoption and growing confidence in its role as a store of value relative to traditional currencies.
According to a new valuation model developed by analysts at CF Benchmarks, Bitcoin could reach roughly $1.4 million per coin by 2035 under a base-case scenario. This projection implies an increase of more than fifteen times current levels. The model also outlines two alternative paths: a more conservative scenario around $637,000, and an extremely bullish case approaching $3 million per Bitcoin.
These estimates are based on the assumption that Bitcoin will capture an increasing share of the role traditionally held by gold as a store of value. In the base scenario, Bitcoin would account for roughly one-third of gold’s market capitalization while delivering strong long-term annualized returns. The authors emphasize that deeper institutional participation, improved liquidity, and clearer regulatory frameworks could gradually reduce volatility and enhance Bitcoin’s appeal in diversified portfolios.
In the most optimistic scenario, Bitcoin would emerge as a global reference asset, supported not only by institutional investors but also by sovereign adoption. Conversely, the bearish case assumes more moderate growth aligned with historical trends, limiting Bitcoin’s share of the value-store market. Even in that scenario, however, valuations would remain well above current price levels.
These ambitious projections align with similar forecasts from several influential figures in the space, many of whom envision Bitcoin reaching seven-figure prices over the next decade. For now, however, the asset remains far from those targets, trading well below its recent peak and illustrating the wide gap between long-term expectations and short-term market realities.
Merry Christmas to all our readers!
The presented information is as of December 23rd, 2025, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.
