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The cryptocurrency market started the week relatively quietly, partly due to the North American holiday. Nevertheless, two dynamics stand out: on the one hand, gold continues its surge with a new peak at $3,500 per ounce, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns over the global fiscal outlook; on the other hand, Bitcoin is struggling to break through its resistance zones, while capital is rotating toward Ethereum. Gold-backed tokens (PAXG, XAUT) briefly followed the rally before correcting, illustrating a simple pause in a broader upward trend. Bitcoin briefly surpassed $110,000 but remains constrained by technical resistances such as the Ichimoku cloud. Network activity remains sluggish: the number of active addresses dropped to 690,000 and transaction fees remain low, a sign of weak retail investor engagement. However, transfer volumes jumped to $10.8 billion, mainly reflecting repositioning by large entities. At the same time, a whale wallet liquidated more than 425 BTC to acquire around 10,500 ETH, reinforcing the idea of institutional repositioning toward Ethereum.
Some observers nonetheless note technical signals that could indicate a bottom for Bitcoin. An indicator tracked by Vibes Capital Management is at levels previously observed during the market lows of August 2024 and April 2025, suggesting a possible rebound scenario. On the altcoin side, volatility remains strong: the Trump-linked WLFI token collapsed after its launch, while Hyperliquid’s HYPE token surged, boosted by record revenues and perpetual trading volumes exceeding $400 billion. On the macroeconomic front, attention is turning to Europe and Asia. On Polymarket, traders see an almost certain failure of France’s September 8 confidence vote, which could reignite bond market tensions within the European Union and weigh on the euro. In the United States, CTA fund positioning in equities has reached extreme levels of optimism, while the market awaits Donald Trump’s speech and Friday’s employment figures. Finally, in Japan, the yen weakened after hints of a future rate hike from the Bank of Japan. All this points to a week marked by high volatility.
For about ten days, gold has recorded a marked rise of more than 5%, reaching nearly $3,480 per ounce and thus nearing its April record of $3,499. This move is explained by a notable transformation in the U.S. bond market: the Treasury yield curve has steepened significantly, a phenomenon where short-term yields fall faster than long-term ones. This type of evolution, called “bull steepening,” generally favors non-interest-bearing assets such as gold and, by extension, Bitcoin.
The rapid decline in two-year bond yields reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, points out that gold-backed funds saw their holdings shrink by 800 tons between 2022 and 2024, a period during which the Fed’s rate hikes made gold far less attractive. The current retreat in short-term yields therefore paves the way for renewed interest from asset managers in this type of safe haven. In this context, Bitcoin indirectly benefits from the same effect. Like gold, it is seen as a scarce, non-yielding asset, which strengthens its appeal when short-term yields fall. However, the relative firmness of long-term rates, fueled by expectations of persistent inflation and concerns over U.S. fiscal credibility, underscores that investors are demanding an additional risk premium. This environment supports demand for assets considered hedges against inflation and political uncertainty.
Historically, such episodes of bull steepening have been favorable to gold and gold miners, but far less so for stocks, which often suffer under these market dynamics. Bitcoin thus finds itself in a singular position: on the one hand, it is correlated with the Nasdaq as an emerging technology; on the other, it shares with gold the attributes of a store of value. This dual identity could play in its favor if the current trend continues.
At the beginning of the week, Bitcoin rebounded above $110,000 after briefly falling to $107,500 over the weekend. This recovery comes as a CoinShares report highlighted the scale of institutional inflows into cryptocurrencies in August, totaling $4.37 billion. Notably, Ethereum dominated these investments, attracting the majority of capital despite a rather lackluster market performance. In fact, over the past week alone, Ethereum lost 4.3% of its value and was trading around $4,406, compared to just a 2% drop for Bitcoin. Yet, ETH-linked financial products — particularly ETFs and ETPs — saw massive inflows of $1.42 billion, representing 57% of all weekly institutional inflows. By comparison, Bitcoin attracted “only” $748 million, nearly half as much.
The trend is even clearer on a monthly scale: while funds invested in Ethereum climbed to nearly $4 billion, Bitcoin recorded net outflows of $301 million. This imbalance is partly explained by market disappointment following the release of inflation data (Core PCE) on Friday, which reduced hopes for a Fed rate cut in September. Despite this, CoinShares insists that the geographic distribution of flows — heavily concentrated in the U.S. but also visible in Europe and Canada — reflects profit-taking rather than truly negative signals. In terms of market structure, Bitcoin dominance (its share of total crypto market capitalization) remained stable around 58% in recent days, despite Ethereum’s pressure. Some forecasters believe this dominance could swing significantly in the coming weeks, oscillating between a rise to 63% or a drop to 53%.
According to an analysis published by JP Morgan, Bitcoin’s current price underestimates its potential. Strategists believe it should be around $126,000 per coin, well above recent levels. Despite apparent stability in recent days, the bank thinks this target remains achievable by year-end, partly due to evolving market conditions and growing institutional interest. Bitcoin’s volatility, traditionally one of its defining features, has dropped sharply in recent months. While it was close to 60% at the start of the year, it now sits around 30%, a historic low. This unusual calm coincides with the rise of spot ETFs in the U.S. and massive BTC purchases by corporate treasuries, a phenomenon contributing to market stabilization.
JP Morgan analysts note that this decline in volatility gradually brings Bitcoin’s risk profile closer to that of gold, thereby enhancing its appeal as a reserve asset. If this convergence continues, institutional allocations to BTC could eventually rival those traditionally devoted to the precious metal. Several listed companies, such as Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), have already embraced this logic, using Bitcoin as a lever to enhance shareholder value. This analysis fits into the recurring debate between Bitcoin and gold as stores of value. Historically, the cryptocurrency has sometimes moved in tandem with gold, but it has also shown growing correlation with equity markets, especially the tech sector. Nevertheless, JP Morgan considers that the current combination of reduced volatility and institutional adoption creates a favorable context for a significant revaluation of Bitcoin in the coming months.
The Bitcoin network has just reached a historic milestone: its seven-day average hashrate hit the colossal level of 1 zettahash per second for the first time, according to Glassnode data. Although this threshold had already been briefly touched earlier this year, it is the first time it has been sustained over a prolonged period, a sign of strong, lasting growth in computing power securing the protocol. To put it in perspective, one zettahash equals 1,000 exahashes. The network first crossed the 1 EH/s mark in 2016, and it was still around 800 EH/s at the start of 2025. In less than a decade, computing capacity has multiplied by a thousand, illustrating the rapid industrialization of mining and the massive investments in the sector.
This surge in computing power will trigger, within days, a difficulty adjustment estimated at more than 7%, the second largest increase of the year. Difficulty adjustments occur roughly every two weeks to maintain a steady pace of about ten minutes for new block creation, regardless of the total mining power online. After this revision, mining difficulty should reach nearly 139 trillion, setting a new record. This evolution confirms that the network’s security has never been stronger, but it also means that miners will need to commit ever greater energy and financial resources to remain competitive in this highly demanding ecosystem.
A major Bitcoin investor, identified as a “whale” controlling around $5 billion in BTC, recently carried out a spectacular arbitrage in favor of Ethereum. According to Hypurrscan data, this player deposited 2,000 BTC — worth nearly $216 million — on the Hyperliquid platform before gradually selling it for more than 42,000 ETH. The transactions were executed in small sales of 1 to 1.5 BTC, a strategy aimed at limiting market impact. Arkham Intelligence linked this address to a much larger portfolio that reportedly moved more than $1.1 billion in BTC to a new address before launching massive Ethereum purchases via Hyperunit. According to their data, this same player had already accumulated $2.5 billion in ETH the previous week, confirming a clear strategy of diversification or repositioning between the two largest cryptocurrencies. This phenomenon is not isolated: other historic Bitcoin holders have adopted similar tactics. Last week, another whale took leveraged long positions on ETH worth $75 million. Moreover, an early investor recently transferred and then liquidated a record amount of BTC from the Satoshi era, worth more than $9 billion, through Galaxy Digital. These massive moves highlight the sudden reactivation of the sector’s largest fortunes.
El Salvador recently transferred its Bitcoin holdings to new addresses, citing security reasons linked in particular to potential threats from quantum computing. Until now, the country had used a single public address to store its reserves, a choice that favored transparency but increased risks. Now, funds are spread across several wallets limited to 500 BTC each, a method intended to reduce exposure to potential attacks that could exploit the visibility of public keys once a transaction is broadcast. Officially, the government holds 6,286 BTC, nearly $686 million at current prices. Arkham Intelligence confirms that the country continues to buy one Bitcoin per day, in line with President Nayib Bukele’s 2022 announcement. However, this strategy contradicts commitments made to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which demanded a slowdown in Bitcoin accumulation in exchange for financial support. In July, the IMF even specified that recent movements corresponded more to internal reallocations than to actual acquisitions.
El Salvador’s announcement highlights a dilemma: on the one hand, the country seeks to strengthen the security and long-term management of its crypto reserves; on the other, it must deal with international pressure and conditions imposed by the IMF. While the government continues to publish its transactions through a public dashboard, the question of whether it is truly continuing its purchases remains unclear, caught between political communication and economic constraints. Since 2021, Bitcoin has been recognized as legal tender in the country alongside the U.S. dollar, but adoption by the population remains limited. Despite Bukele’s active promotion and the launch of a state-backed digital wallet, Salvadorans remain largely indifferent to daily BTC use. The president’s popularity rests mainly on his tough-on-crime policy and his crackdown on gangs, rather than on his cryptocurrency-related financial decisions.
Bitcoin has just generated a rare signal that has only appeared twice in the past year, each time at significant market bottoms. According to Frank Fetter, a quantitative analyst at Vibes Capital Management, short-term holders — those keeping their BTC for less than six months — have reached a critical profitability threshold as the price fell to around $107,000. This situation corresponds to a breakeven point between their acquisition cost and the current price, a level that often acts as support during bull market corrections. The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) indicator applied to this category of investors confirms this fragile state. By adding Bollinger Bands, Fetter highlights that the market has printed a particularly rare oversold signal. This phenomenon had only occurred in August 2024, during the Japanese yen crisis, and in April 2025, after the announcement of new U.S. trade tariffs that drove Bitcoin below $75,000.
These precedents suggest that the current configuration could mark the end of a correction and the beginning of a new recovery cycle. At the same time, the relative strength index (RSI) on shorter timeframes — particularly the four-hour chart — shows a bullish divergence with price action, reinforcing the hypothesis of an upward reversal. After sliding along the lower Bollinger Band throughout August, Bitcoin now seems poised for a technical rebound. Although the market remains volatile, the convergence of several technical signals — MVRV in the oversold zone, Bollinger Bands, and RSI divergences — suggests that a significant bottom may have been reached around $107,000.
Beyond its major exposure to Bitcoin, the Rivemont Crypto Fund has maintained its positions in ETH, XRP, and SOL over the past week.
The presented information is as of August 2nd, 2025, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.
