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The cryptocurrency market began 2026 on a clearly positive note, supported by a renewed appetite for risk at the start of the year and by capital flows seeking safe-haven assets amid heightened geopolitical tensions. After a December marked by tax-related selling and year-end portfolio adjustments, selling pressure has eased, giving way to a broad-based rebound. Bitcoin, ether, and several large-cap tokens have thus posted notable gains in the first days of January.
This momentum is also taking place against a more favorable backdrop in traditional markets. The rebound in U.S. equities, particularly in the technology and energy sectors, has helped support digital assets, which have historically been correlated with growth stocks. At the same time, recent geopolitical tensions—especially those involving Venezuela—have revived interest in bitcoin as an alternative or protective asset, similar to gold. Some investors also see a potential indirect disinflationary effect, which could restore room for maneuver for central banks.
Another key driver of renewed confidence is the strong return of institutional flows through U.S.-listed spot ETFs. After several weeks of withdrawals, these products have recorded significant inflows, signaling a shift in tone among professional investors. At the same time, the options market shows an increase in bullish positioning, particularly at higher bitcoin price levels, reflecting expectations of continued upside in the short term.
Despite this constructive picture, caution remains warranted. Spot market volumes are still low and liquidity remains limited, making prices more sensitive to marginal capital flows. In such an environment, sharp advances as well as abrupt pullbacks remain possible. In other words, while the underlying trend is improving, market participation is not yet broad enough to rule out heightened volatility.
Bitcoin is starting the new year with a much more constructive dynamic after several weeks of stagnation. Its recent advance has pushed it above its 200-day moving average, a key technical level it had not reclaimed since the fall. This move marks a significant shift in market structure, as the cryptocurrency had until now appeared trapped in a hesitant, even unfavorable trend, despite a turbulent macroeconomic backdrop and financial markets in transition.
This improvement follows a disappointing 2025 for bitcoin, which stood in sharp contrast to the spectacular surge seen in 2024. Expectations tied to a political environment perceived as favorable to crypto had already been priced in by markets, leading to a correction once those hopes materialized. Meanwhile, traditional safe-haven assets such as gold captured most capital flows amid geopolitical instability, pushing bitcoin into the background despite its frequently cited status as “digital gold.”
From a technical perspective, the recent move has ended a phase of price compression and restored momentum to buyers. The clear break above key resistance levels suggests a gradual return of confidence, even though the longer-term setup remains fragile. Several indicators show that selling pressure is easing while buying momentum is strengthening without excess, placing the market in a balanced zone conducive to further upside.
U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs saw a sharp resurgence of interest at the start of the year, recording their strongest single day of net inflows since the fall. In just one session, nearly $700 million flowed into these products, pushing cumulative inflows for the first days of 2026 beyond $1 billion. This rebound in flows comes amid a calmer market environment, as investors gradually return to digital assets after a period of heightened caution at year-end.
Most funds benefited from these inflows, with a notable concentration in the most established products. ETFs managed by BlackRock and Fidelity attracted the bulk of new capital, though other industry players also saw gains. This renewed institutional interest reflects a fresh willingness to gain exposure to bitcoin through regulated vehicles, which are viewed as more secure and better suited to large-scale allocations.
The copper-to-gold ratio is often used as a macroeconomic gauge to assess the strength of growth and investors’ appetite for risk. Copper, closely tied to industrial activity, tends to strengthen when economic prospects improve, while gold plays a more defensive role during periods of uncertainty. When copper outperforms gold, it generally signals a more favorable environment for risk assets—one that has often benefited bitcoin in the past.
The historical evolution of this ratio shows interesting links with major bitcoin cycles. Peaks in the ratio during past phases of economic euphoria have coincided with major highs in the crypto market. More importantly, bullish reversals in the ratio after extended periods of weakness have frequently preceded strong bitcoin recoveries, particularly when they occurred around halving events that reduce miners’ rewards.
At the time of the most recent bitcoin halving in spring 2024, the copper-to-gold ratio was still trending lower, in contrast with patterns observed in previous cycles. Since then, the trend has reversed: the ratio has rebounded after bottoming in the fall, signaling a potential shift in the macroeconomic regime. This inflection is occurring as both metals trade near their historical highs.
If copper’s recent outperformance relative to gold primarily reflects renewed expectations for global growth rather than simple supply constraints, it could send a favorable signal for risk assets. In that context, this macroeconomic development would reinforce the case for a more supportive environment for bitcoin in 2026, consistent with dynamics seen during past bull cycles.
The year 2026 could mark a major turning point in the structure of crypto markets, driven by the combined effects of more mature regulation and increased institutional participation. Experts anticipate a gradual concentration of liquidity across fewer platforms as new legal frameworks in Europe, Asia, and the United States reshape trading behavior. This evolution forces existing infrastructure to demonstrate that it can deliver execution quality and stability comparable to traditional financial markets.
Current weaknesses were exposed during the liquidation crisis of October 2025, when massive leveraged positions were unwound within hours, revealing shallow order books and inadequate risk-management mechanisms. For institutional players, such dysfunctions are largely unacceptable. The challenge for 2026 will therefore be to address these shortcomings—both in decentralized finance and on centralized platforms—by improving market depth, price formation, and resilience to shocks.
On the regulatory front, the focus is gradually shifting. After an initial phase centered on licensing and defining regulated activities, attention is now turning to market structure and governance rules needed to effectively bridge traditional finance and digital assets. The implementation of MiCA in Europe, regulatory convergence in Asia, and legislative progress in the United States all illustrate this transition toward a more operational and demanding framework.
In the United States, progress on legislation aimed at clarifying the division of authority between regulators could accelerate this transformation, even as political tensions persist. In the background, a central question remains: will crypto infrastructure be able to evolve quickly enough to absorb growing institutional volumes—whether in stablecoins, tokenized assets, or ETF-linked products—while avoiding the episodes of fragility that still hinder large-scale inflows of traditional capital?
Morgan Stanley has filed documents with the U.S. regulator to launch exchange-traded funds linked to bitcoin and Solana, confirming the growing interest of major financial institutions in digital assets. These initiatives involve two distinct products, including a Solana fund with a staking component, and would place the bank alongside other leading players already active in this segment if approval is granted.
This move comes amid the rapid expansion of crypto ETFs in the United States. Cumulative trading volumes in spot products have surpassed $2 trillion, highlighting a sharp acceleration in activity and liquidity. Bitcoin ETFs now hold a significant share of total circulating supply, even as bitcoin prices remain below key psychological thresholds, underscoring sustained interest regardless of short-term price fluctuations.
A more favorable regulatory environment has also played a key role in this trend. U.S. authorities have recently streamlined and accelerated approval processes for certain crypto-related products, reducing delays that previously hindered their launch. This shift coincides with a broader opening by Wall Street firms, encouraged by a clearer and more predictable regulatory framework.
Finally, these filings are part of Morgan Stanley’s broader strategy to gradually integrate cryptocurrencies into its traditional offerings. The bank has already defined allocation guidelines for certain portfolios and expanded access to digital assets for its clients, including within long-term accounts. The potential launch of bitcoin and Solana ETFs thus reflects a desire to meet growing demand for regulated solutions as the crypto market continues to mature and gain institutional credibility.
Activity on the Ethereum network reached an unprecedented level at the very end of the year, with daily transaction counts hitting a new all-time high. This record far exceeds the peaks recorded during the 2021 boom driven by NFTs and decentralized finance. At the same time, the number of active addresses and new users surged, signaling a resurgence in real network usage beyond mere speculation.
This acceleration is largely explained by a series of major technical upgrades deployed recently. These improvements have significantly reduced fees, increased throughput, and enhanced user experience, while also boosting the network’s appeal to institutional participants. Advances related to rollups, account abstraction, and second-layer performance have made the ecosystem more efficient and accessible.
Ethereum thus remains the central backbone of many core activities within the crypto economy. The majority of stablecoins, real-world asset tokenization projects, yield and staking protocols, as well as numerous trading, gaming, and NFT applications, continue to rely on Ethereum or on chains compatible with its technical environment. Despite the emergence of strong competitors, this dominant position remains largely intact.
Further significant developments are expected in 2026, with new upgrades aimed at improving overall network performance, decentralization, and long-term sustainability. In a context where ether’s price has at times disappointed investors, this surge in activity could nonetheless set the stage for renewed interest, particularly from large investors seeking undervalued opportunities.
The presented information is as of January 6th, 2026, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.
