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The period from October 21 to October 27 produced another decline in the crypto market, in an environment dominated by geopolitical tensions, elevated oil prices and anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve. Bitcoin moved from approximately $83,000 to $79,800, a decline of close to 4%. It briefly reached $84,800 early in the period, but deteriorating sentiment toward risk assets subsequently pushed it below $80,000.
Ethereum declined further, moving from approximately $2,445 to $2,310, a loss of close to 6%. After temporarily exceeding $2,500, ETH tested the $2,295 area. This relative weakness confirms that investors continue to favour bitcoin when liquidity tightens and macroeconomic uncertainty increases.
Oil remains one of the main obstacles. Brent crude was trading near $116 per barrel on October 27 after exceeding $117, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and renewed Houthi attacks continued to threaten supply. Higher oil prices are maintaining inflationary pressures and reducing the Federal Reserve’s policy flexibility.
The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield nevertheless moved slightly below 5%, to approximately 4.99%, as demand for government bonds increased during the technology-stock correction. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its policy rate between 3.75% and 4% at its October 27–28 meeting. Most economists nevertheless expect an increase in December, maintaining some pressure on risk assets.
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows remained volatile. A notable $525 million inflow on October 21 was followed by outflows of $636 million and $138 million during the next two sessions. A $110 million inflow on October 26 limited the four available sessions to approximately $138 million in net outflows. Monday’s return of buyers is encouraging, although a more sustained series of inflows will be required to confirm an improvement in institutional demand.
Ethereum ETFs recorded approximately $180 million in net outflows over the same period. A $15 million inflow on October 21 and another $4 million inflow on October 23 were insufficient to offset withdrawals during the other sessions. This weakness in flows is consistent with ETH’s price underperformance. October 27 data was not yet available at the time of writing.
From a technical perspective, the $80,000-to-$81,000 area ultimately did not hold as firmly as it had during previous weeks. Bitcoin also closed several sessions below its 50-day moving average, now located near $81,800. This average therefore becomes resistance that must be reclaimed rather than confirmed support.
The reaction around $79,000 to $80,000 nevertheless shows that buyers have not completely withdrawn. A recovery above $80,800 and then the 50-day moving average would represent an initial sign of improvement. Above that area, the main resistance levels stand between $83,000 and $84,000. A sustained break below $78,000 to $79,000 could bring bitcoin back toward $76,000 and then its 200-day moving average, located near $72,500.
The longer-term structure nevertheless remains more constructive than the recent price action suggests. The 50-day moving average remains above the 200-day moving average, preserving the recent bullish crossover signal. This signal does not guarantee an immediate recovery, but it indicates that the intermediate trend has not yet shifted into a sustained bearish configuration.
For Ethereum, the $2,290-to-$2,300 region represents the first important support, followed by $2,200. On the upside, ETH will need to reclaim $2,380 to $2,400 and then exceed $2,470 to $2,500 to restore a more favourable setup.
On the institutional front, Strategy neither purchased nor sold bitcoin during the week from October 19 to October 25. The company nevertheless continues to hold approximately 848,517 BTC, acquired at an average cost of about $75,446. Maintaining this position despite the market decline represents a sign of conviction, while the current price remains above its overall average cost.
U.S. regulation is also continuing to evolve. Federal bank regulators clarified that crypto platforms may continue offering certain interest-like rewards on stablecoins, even though issuers themselves cannot directly pay these returns. This interpretation preserves an important source of revenue for several platforms, but authorities emphasize that these products do not provide the same protections as insured bank deposits.
The industry has also committed approximately $176 million to the U.S. midterm elections, primarily to support candidates favouring a clearer regulatory framework. This growing influence demonstrates the sector’s political maturity, but also highlights the importance of the CLARITY Act, whose progress remains uncertain.
In summary, the week confirmed a deterioration in the short-term trend: bitcoin lost its 50-day moving average, Ethereum remains weaker and ETF flows continue to fluctuate. The market nevertheless avoided a disorderly selloff despite oil trading above $115, uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve and volatility in technology markets.
The main factors to monitor will be the Federal Reserve’s decision, its guidance regarding December and bitcoin’s reaction around $78,000 to $80,000. A rapid recovery above $81,800 would materially improve the setup. Conversely, a break below $78,000 would increase the risk of a deeper correction. For now, the longer-term trend remains constructive, but the market must reclaim its main technical levels before beginning a more convincing recovery.
The presented information is as of October 27th, 2026, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.
