Bitcoin is currently experiencing a period of uncertainty, stuck below the $85,000 mark, a major resistance level. Since March 12, the cryptocurrency has made several attempts to sustainably break through this level, but it has never managed to close above $84,600. This situation reflects a direct battle between buyers and sellers, particularly visible on short-term charts where price movements have become erratic and unpredictable.

This indecision could intensify as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting approaches, scheduled for March 18-19. Although an overwhelming majority of market participants anticipate that U.S. interest rates will remain between 4.25% and 4.50%, attention is focused on statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Given recent indicators, such as inflation (CPI) at 2.8%, slightly above the 2% target, and solid economic growth (annual GDP of 2.3%), Powell is expected to adopt a rather restrictive stance, delaying any immediate hopes of rate cuts.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin must convert the $85,000 resistance into support to consider a rise towards $90,000. To achieve this, the price must first reclaim the 200-day exponential moving average, which is currently acting as strong resistance.

U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by Bitcoin recorded net inflows of $274.6 million in a single day yesterday. This amount marks their largest daily increase since early February, ending five consecutive weeks of significant net outflows totaling approximately $5.4 billion. According to analyst Rachael Lucas, this renewed interest in Bitcoin ETFs is mainly due to the recent stabilization of Bitcoin’s price, currently around $83,000, as well as a gradual return of institutional investor appetite. Several factors, such as institutional portfolio adjustments at the end of the quarter and a growing preference for funds with lower management fees, are supporting this positive momentum.

A major cryptocurrency trader, nicknamed a “whale,” has taken a highly risky position by massively shorting Bitcoin with 40x leverage on the decentralized platform Hyperliquid. Their current position amounts to approximately $521 million. If Bitcoin’s price were to increase by just 1.75%, reaching $85,591, this position would be immediately liquidated, resulting in significant losses for the trader. However, other investors, including a pseudonymous trader named “Cbb0fe,” have identified this vulnerability and have mobilized to intentionally liquidate this massive short position. Organizing a real counterattack, Cbb0fe claims to have gathered more than $10 million to push Bitcoin’s price up sufficiently. Even though this counter-movement temporarily drove Bitcoin’s price above $84,298, the bet remains active, as the struggling trader has injected more funds to raise their liquidation threshold.

Digital asset management firm Hashdex has recently requested authorization from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to expand the composition of its exchange-traded fund, the Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index US ETF (NCIQ). Currently focused primarily on Bitcoin, with a minor allocation to Ethereum, the fund may soon include other major cryptocurrencies such as Solana, XRP, Cardano, as well as Chainlink, Uniswap, Litecoin, and Avalanche. This request comes just three months after the NCIQ fund, officially launched on February 14, received its initial SEC approval. As of today, the fund manages approximately $66 million in assets. Hashdex already offers a more diversified similar fund on the Bermuda Stock Exchange, covering Bitcoin along with nine other cryptocurrencies.

Canadian Bitcoin mining company Bitfarms has just completed the acquisition of U.S.-based Stronghold Digital Mining. This transaction, previously announced and valued at approximately $175 million, will allow Bitfarms to expand its operations in the United States while positioning itself in the rapidly growing artificial intelligence (AI) sector. Bitfarms plans to leverage the newly acquired infrastructure to enter the hosting and operation of high-performance computing systems dedicated to AI. The company sees this diversification as a strategic opportunity, given the high demand for infrastructure capable of supporting large-scale artificial intelligence projects. Through this acquisition, Bitfarms also gains access to a significant energy network in Pennsylvania, totaling up to 1.1 gigawatts, combining existing capacity and potential grid connection. This expansion in the United States aligns with a strategy aimed at sustainable growth and long-term value creation for its shareholders. Currently, Bitfarms already operates fifteen Bitcoin mining centers across Canada, the United States, Argentina, and Paraguay, making this acquisition a key strategic lever for accelerating its international expansion and diversifying its revenue streams in the technology sector.

The company Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, has just added 130 more bitcoins to its already substantial reserves. This recent purchase brings the company’s total holdings to 499,226 BTC, valued at approximately $41.4 billion. Strategy thus reaffirms its dominant position as the largest corporate Bitcoin holder globally. This acquisition, made at an average price of $82,108 per bitcoin, is the smallest since Strategy began its massive purchases in 2020. The operation was financed through a fundraising method called “At-The-Market” (ATM), which allows shares to be gradually sold directly on secondary markets rather than through a traditional public offering. In the long term, Strategy even plans to raise up to $42 billion over the next three years to significantly increase its Bitcoin reserves. Since the beginning of the year, Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings have generated a return of 6.0%, still far from its 2025 target of 15%. However, the recent acquisition, made at an average price of around $84,108 per BTC, shows that the company is methodically continuing its accumulation strategy despite market fluctuations. It is worth noting that this purchase remains modest compared to the company’s largest acquisition in February 2025, when it bought more than 20,000 bitcoins in a single transaction.

A British engineer has just definitively lost his legal appeal to recover a hard drive containing approximately $676 million worth of Bitcoin, accidentally buried in a landfill in Wales. James Howells, who mined these 8,000 bitcoins in 2009, has been fighting for years to obtain permission to search the landfill for the valuable device, which was mistakenly discarded by his former partner in 2013. The UK Court of Appeal recently rejected his latest legal attempt, ruling that his appeal had “no real chance of success.” Despite this final decision, Howells intends to continue the fight before the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), hoping to find a favorable outcome there. He even considers purchasing the land where the landfill is located to conduct the necessary excavations himself. However, time is running out for Howells: the Welsh municipality responsible for the site plans to permanently close it by the 2025-2026 fiscal year. Once the site is closed, any recovery attempt would become practically impossible, significantly reducing his chances of retrieving his valuable hard drive and its hundreds of millions in cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin is currently showing positive technical signs that suggest a potential significant price increase. Indeed, the stochastic RSI technical indicator, which measures an asset’s momentum based on its recent movement, has just produced a bullish cross. Historically, this signal has often been followed by significant gains, with average increases of around 56%, and sometimes exceeding 90% within a few months. According to some analysts, this scenario could allow Bitcoin to reach, or even surpass, the $120,000 level by July or August, compared to its current price of around $82,300. These forecasts are based on historical trends observed during previous positive stochastic RSI crosses, which have already triggered notable rebounds within a few months.

The market is currently receiving additional support from the growing interest of hedge funds specializing in Bitcoin, which are taking advantage of the recent price drop to accumulate more BTC. This hedge fund accumulation strategy, confirmed by the beta indicator reaching a four-month high, highlights renewed institutional optimism about Bitcoin’s future trajectory. This reinforces the hypothesis that the market anticipates a significant recovery in the medium term, although caution remains necessary given the persistently high volatility of the crypto market.

The presented information is as of March 18th, 2025, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.