After significant volatility last week following the announcement of U.S. tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, Bitcoin’s price has stabilized in a tightening consolidation channel in recent days. Meanwhile, gold has reached a record high, leading many analysts to hope that Bitcoin could follow suit as a form of “digital gold.” However, Bitcoin continues to struggle to transition from a risky asset to a reliable store of value like gold.

Bitcoin appears to be increasingly less affected by Donald Trump’s trade tactics. While earlier announcements of tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China briefly pushed Bitcoin’s price down to $93,000, recent statements about new taxes on aluminum and steel have had only a limited impact. After a slight dip on Sunday evening, Bitcoin rebounded to $97,700 by Monday’s market opening. According to Tom Dunleavy of MV Global, markets are becoming better at anticipating Trump’s strategies, recognizing that only a small portion of his initial tariff threats are ever fully implemented. Investors now perceive these announcements more as negotiation tools rather than systematically applied policies. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve closely monitors how trade policy changes may affect inflation, which could influence its decision to maintain higher interest rates. Trump also seems to be shifting his strategy from “universal” tariffs targeting all imports to “reciprocal” tariffs aimed at countries imposing taxes on U.S. goods. Analysts, such as Geoff Kendrick from Standard Chartered, view this shift as a move toward a less aggressive stance, reducing market anxiety.

Binance and the SEC recently surprised the cryptocurrency sector by filing a joint motion to pause their ongoing lawsuit for 60 days. This request is based on the hope that a new regulatory dynamic will emerge with the creation of a crypto-focused task force led by SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce. Both parties believe this development could facilitate a quicker resolution of the litigation, which involves serious allegations of U.S. securities law violations. If the suspension is approved, it would delay key decisions, such as Binance’s motion to dismiss the SEC’s amended complaint. This initiative, which comes amid potential changes in regulatory policies under the interim SEC Chair Mark Uyeda, could also inspire other companies like Ripple and Coinbase to adopt similar approaches in their legal battles with the SEC. Since 2023, Binance has faced a series of accusations, including securities law violations that endangered investor funds. In November 2023, its founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) pleaded guilty to charges of money laundering and sanctions violations, agreeing to pay over $4 billion in fines and serving a prison sentence. Despite these legal challenges, the SEC’s new crypto task force, aimed at establishing clearer regulations, has raised hopes for a more favorable approach to the industry.

Franklin Templeton, a multinational asset manager, has recently filed an application with the SEC to launch a new multi-asset crypto index ETF. The fund, called the Franklin Crypto Index ETF, would initially focus on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), with respective weightings of 86.31% and 13.69%. Although the application does not commit to including other cryptocurrencies immediately, it leaves the door open for future additions if approved by the SEC. The fund will operate based on an index that includes only digital assets conforming to the regulatory standards of major financial jurisdictions such as the United States. Franklin Templeton emphasizes that before adding any new assets, the SEC must have approved a similar financial product for the asset in question. Currently, Franklin Templeton already offers a Bitcoin ETF valued at $743.7 million and an Ethereum ETF worth $33.9 million. If this multi-asset ETF is approved, it could be listed on the Cboe BZX Exchange, marking a significant step toward attracting institutional and retail investors to cryptocurrencies without relying on a single asset. Jeff Hancock, CEO of Coinpass, believes such a product could provide much-needed liquidity to the market while giving institutions more flexibility to diversify their portfolios. Many observers see the emergence of multi-asset ETFs in the crypto sector as inevitable.

Donald Trump’s new fintech project, Truth.Fi, plans to launch Bitcoin-based investment products, marking a new phase in the expansion of his media and technology group. Truth.Fi, the financial arm of Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG), announced that it has filed trademarks for six investment vehicles, including two related to Bitcoin: the Truth.Fi Bitcoin Plus ETF and the Truth.Fi Bitcoin Plus SMA. These initiatives aim to provide traditional investors with increased exposure to cryptocurrencies, a strategy already adopted by major players such as BlackRock and Fidelity. Devin Nunes, CEO of Trump Media, stated that the goal is to offer competitive alternatives to existing funds, emphasizing American values such as energy and manufacturing. However, details about the specific features of the “Plus” in these products remain unclear.

An increasing number of U.S. states are considering establishing strategic Bitcoin reserves, following the example of Donald Trump and his political allies, who are advocating for this type of asset at the national level. Currently, nine states are evaluating legislation to integrate Bitcoin into their treasuries, each with different approaches to strengthening financial resilience and protecting public funds against inflation. In Texas, a bill proposes the creation of a Bitcoin reserve stored offline for maximum security and held for at least five years. Pennsylvania is considering investing up to 10% of its general and emergency funds in Bitcoin, while Ohio is introducing a similar project that gives the state treasurer the freedom to acquire cryptocurrencies. New Hampshire and Wyoming are also exploring measures to integrate Bitcoin into their investment strategies, emphasizing practices such as lending or staking to maximize returns. Other states, such as Arizona and Utah, are considering allocating portions of their public funds to digital assets, provided they meet strict market capitalization thresholds. Illinois, meanwhile, plans to create a dedicated strategic fund where Bitcoin must be held for a minimum of five years before being sold or transferred. This wave of legislation reflects a growing adoption of cryptocurrencies at the local level as states seek to diversify their portfolios.

Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, recently resumed its Bitcoin purchases after a brief pause. Between February 3 and February 9, it acquired an additional 7,633 bitcoins for $742.4 million. This marks the end of a 12-week streak of consecutive purchases totaling $20 billion. Currently, Strategy holds an impressive portfolio of 478,740 bitcoins, valued at approximately $46.5 billion. The company has implemented an ambitious plan called the “21/21 Plan,” aiming to raise $42 billion to strengthen its Bitcoin exposure, equally split between equity issuance and fixed-income securities. Since adopting this strategy in August 2020, Strategy has spent an average of $65,033 per Bitcoin, according to SEC filings. This shift represents a strategic pivot for the company, now focusing on securing and accumulating Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation.

The Ethereum/Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio has reached its lowest point in four years, reflecting a clear preference among institutional investors for Bitcoin-based products, such as ETFs. Currently at 0.028, the ratio has dropped 70% since September 2022, highlighting Ethereum’s persistent underperformance compared to Bitcoin. Analysts cite a return to inflationary supply metrics for Ethereum and a lack of strong catalysts to boost its price as key reasons for this decline. Since the “Merge” upgrade in 2022, Ethereum was expected to become deflationary, but its average annual supply growth of 5.4% since February 2024 has fallen short of expectations. Additionally, Ethereum has lost competitiveness to other blockchains like Solana, which now captures a significant share of decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume. Delays in critical updates, such as the Pectra upgrade expected in March, further complicate Ethereum’s market position. In response, the Ethereum ecosystem is seeking to reposition itself. Initiatives such as Etherealize, supported by Vitalik Buterin, aim to attract Wall Street and strengthen institutional adoption. However, internal tensions within the Ethereum Foundation and a perceived lack of leadership are hindering these efforts. For now, Bitcoin continues to dominate institutional flows, leaving Ethereum lagging in a market where clarity and stability are key for investors.

Bitcoin’s price could reach a new all-time high in the next two to three weeks, according to some analysts who observe a correlation between Bitcoin and gold. While gold recently broke a new record at $2,942 per ounce, Bitcoin has shown signs of volatility, especially following rumors denied by Binance about a massive sale of its cryptocurrency reserves. Experts like Michaël van de Poppe predict that Bitcoin could follow gold’s trajectory with a slight time lag, potentially reaching a new all-time high in the coming weeks. According to his analysis, the ideal entry point for investors is around $90,000. Other analysts, such as Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments, compare the current situation to summer 2024, when gold’s rally led to a significant increase in Bitcoin’s price a few months later. With central banks and Asian investors continuing to buy gold as an inflation hedge, Edwards foresees an inevitable shift toward Bitcoin, often referred to as the world’s most resilient asset.

The British multinational bank Standard Chartered predicts that Bitcoin’s price will reach $500,000 before the end of Donald Trump’s term as President of the United States. This increase would be supported by a more favorable regulatory environment and greater investor access to Bitcoin. The bank anticipates steady growth, with prices reaching $200,000 in 2025, $300,000 in 2026, $400,000 in 2027, and a plateau at $500,000 in 2028. At this level, Bitcoin’s market capitalization would reach $10.5 trillion, approximately half of gold’s market cap. The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 played a key role in this dynamic, attracting $39 billion in net inflows. These financial products have addressed significant pent-up demand, making Bitcoin more accessible to traditional investors. Additionally, the SEC’s repeal of the SAB 121 accounting directive, which complicated the treatment of digital assets on corporate balance sheets, is seen as a crucial step toward more favorable regulation.

The presented information is as of February 11th, 2025, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.