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Over the past week, the Bitcoin market has been shaken by an exceptional flow of capital: more than 8% of all circulating units changed hands. According to Joe Burnett of Semler Scientific, such a redistribution constitutes one of the most significant on-chain events in the network’s history. He recalls that similar movements occurred during the major bottoms of 2018 and 2020, just before extended accumulation phases and new all-time highs. A significant portion of the recent activity, however, appears to be linked to an internal wallet migration announced by Coinbase.
In this already unstable environment, investors remain focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve. Conflicting signals surrounding a potential rate cut in December are keeping Bitcoin and the broader market on edge. For analyst Nic Puckrin, the next monetary decision will determine whether the end of the year brings a festive rebound or, conversely, another downturn. As the date approaches, he expects growing anxiety and a strong market reaction during the December 10 press conference.
Finally, expectations of a rate cut have surged in just a few days: markets now estimate the probability of a 25-basis-point reduction at over 80%, compared with roughly 50% the previous week. This drastic shift in expectations likely contributed to Bitcoin’s recovery, rising from around $81,000 to nearly $87,000 on renewed hopes of a more accommodative monetary stance by year-end.
Amid this hesitant climate, an on-chain indicator is sending a more encouraging signal. The cumulative bid-ask delta on spot markets, measured at 10% depth, reached its second-highest level of the year, suggesting that a number of investors are buying the dip. A similar pattern appeared in the spring and preceded a confirmed bottom and a rally of more than 60%. For now, Bitcoin has stabilized around $87,000.
According to Glassnode, selling pressure is finally starting to ease: the market remains oversold, but several indicators point to gradual seller exhaustion, helping stabilize trading activity.
Both on-chain data and spot-market dynamics suggest that the phase of aggressive selling is giving way to a more controlled unwinding. Open interest is stabilizing, spot volumes remain moderate, and outflows from Bitcoin FNBs continue—indicating a shift toward a less aggressive market environment. Renewed buying activity on spot markets, along with a normalizing Coinbase premium, also suggests buyers are slowly regaining some control.
In the options market, conditions have improved notably. Investors who typically rely on puts for protection during downturns are now reducing their bearish exposure: the 25-delta skew has rebounded sharply, reflecting lower demand for downside hedging. Meanwhile, significant call volumes at the $100,000, $112,000, $116,000, and $118,000 strikes indicate that some traders are positioning for potential upside through 2025.
Despite this renewed optimism, caution dominates. According to Tiger Research, Bitcoin must firmly reclaim the $87,000–$88,000 zone to confirm a legitimate trend reversal—otherwise, the current move may remain just a technical bounce. Institutional investors, for their part, appear to maintain a long-term bullish view and are gradually strengthening their exposure. The next major test for the market will come from the Federal Reserve’s December decisions, which could shape Bitcoin’s trajectory for the rest of the year.
Why has the cryptocurrency market fallen so sharply in recent weeks? According to Deutsche Bank, Bitcoin’s dramatic drop—from $126,000 to about $82,000 in a matter of weeks—is the result of a combination of macroeconomic and structural factors. The bank highlights five major causes: widespread risk aversion impacting tech assets, a more hardline tone from the Federal Reserve, the stalled CLARITY Act intended to regulate crypto markets, a marked slowdown in institutional demand, and heavy profit-taking from long-term holders. Unlike past corrections driven mainly by retail speculation, this downturn is characterized by significant institutional involvement and a highly uncertain monetary environment.
Since early October, nearly $5 billion has exited Bitcoin-linked exchange-traded products, while derivatives markets have experienced massive liquidations, increasing volatility. Although BTC briefly rebounded to around $88,500, the broader context remains fragile: the total crypto market cap has shrunk by roughly $1 trillion, suggesting the sector is undergoing stress similar to the extreme episodes of 2022. Analysts also note that Bitcoin has traded more like a high-growth tech stock than a safe-haven asset, with rising correlations to the Nasdaq and S&P 500.
According to Bloomberg Intelligence, short interest in BlackRock’s Bitcoin FNB (IBIT) has fallen sharply during the recent sell-off, returning to April levels as many traders closed their bearish bets. Analyst Eric Balchunas explains that this pattern is typical: investors short into strength and cover during downturns. He adds that despite severe pullbacks, Bitcoin has historically always recovered to set new all-time highs.
This dynamic mirrors what happened last spring. After hitting a record of $109,000, Bitcoin plunged below $75,000 in early April amid escalating trade tensions. Short positions on FNBs were quickly reduced, followed by a rebound of more than 50% that pushed Bitcoin above $112,000 just weeks later. Today’s correction is again accompanied by massive withdrawals from crypto investment products: nearly $1.9 billion left global FNBs in a single week, including more than $1 billion flowing out of IBIT alone.
Despite these heavy outflows, several more constructive signs are emerging. Analysts note that long-term investors are using the current weakness to accumulate. Moreover, Friday marked the first positive flow day for Bitcoin FNBs after an entire week of continuous redemptions, hinting at a tentative stabilization.
XRP has regained momentum thanks to the launch of the new Franklin Templeton FNB, now listed on NYSE Arca. The product, called XRPZ, rose nearly 9% in its first trading session, benefiting from renewed interest in the asset. At the same time, XRP itself gained around 9% over 24 hours, trading near $2.24, though it remains down more than 13% over the past month. The arrival of XRPZ follows another notable launch: the Canary Capital XRP FNB introduced earlier this month, which exceeded expectations with $17 million in inflows in under 30 minutes and $58 million on its first day—a yearly record for a new FNB. The rapid growth of these products illustrates rising institutional interest in XRP despite recent market turbulence.
Several technical indicators now show that Bitcoin’s risk-reward profile has improved noticeably, something not seen in several years. Even with a still-fragile market around $87,000, some metrics suggest conditions are becoming more favorable for buyers, although this does not guarantee that the cycle bottom is in.
One closely watched indicator is the Sharpe ratio, used to measure risk-adjusted returns. According to CryptoQuant, the ratio has returned to its “green” zone for the first time since mid-2023, reaching levels similar to those seen in major consolidation periods of 2019, 2020, and 2022—periods that preceded multi-month upward trends. Analysts emphasize, however, that the Sharpe ratio must begin trending upward before confirming a durable recovery.
Another tool, the Bitcoin Heater developed by Capriole Investments, is sending a similar message. This metric, which evaluates “market heat” across perpetuals, futures, and options weighted by open interest, has dropped to its lowest level since November 2022. Its creator, Charles Edwards, argues that such depressed readings typically correspond to favorable conditions for bullish reversals, even though challenges such as institutional selling remain.
Lastly, the dynamic NVT ratio—which compares network valuation to actual transaction volume—also shows Bitcoin as “oversold” relative to on-chain activity. Taken together, these signals do not yet confirm a clear trend reversal, but they suggest that Bitcoin’s risk-opportunity landscape is becoming increasingly compelling for investors betting on a gradual market recovery.
The presented information is as of November 25th, 2025, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.
