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Here we are again with our weekly communications after a short summer break. Bitcoin’s price briefly fell below $110,000 yesterday, suggesting we may see the first down month after four consecutive months of gains. However, this small pullback does not tell the whole story. At the same time, many altcoins are currently outperforming bitcoin, led by ETH, which is showing an impressive surge. The Rivemont crypto fund holds nearly 25% of its assets in ETH, meaning added value is being actively created for investors. We also hold positions in XRP and SOL.
After peaking at $117,000 last Friday, boosted by Jerome Powell’s remarks hinting at a possible interest rate cut, the trend quickly reversed, as the speech lost its effect on market sentiment. According to several analysts, this correction is due to a mix of profit-taking, technical resistance, and revised expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy. The climate was further unsettled after the massive sale of 24,000 BTC by a large holder, triggering a chain of liquidations across derivatives markets. In addition, President Donald Trump’s announcement that he was dismissing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook added another layer of political uncertainty about the central bank’s independence.
Current technical levels are now being closely monitored: $105,000 as the June breakout zone, and especially the psychological threshold of $100,000. A sharp fall below this latter level could trigger forced sales and increase downward pressure, while the $118,000–$120,000 zone remains a major resistance as long as macro conditions remain unclear. Markets are now turning to two key indicators expected this week: the revision of U.S. Q2 GDP, with growth likely adjusted upward to 3.1%, and the core PCE index, anticipated to show a slight acceleration from 2.8% to 2.9%. If these figures were to show weaker growth combined with higher-than-expected inflation, it could cast doubt on the Fed’s path for rate cuts in September and beyond.
Since early June, Ethereum has clearly outperformed Bitcoin thanks to strong buying momentum. While BTC has gained only 9%, ETH has surged about 70%, pushing the ETH/BTC ratio to a yearly high of 0.037. This exceptional performance is mainly due to two factors: massive inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs (nearly $9.4 billion since June 2) and rapid ETH accumulation by corporate treasuries, which now hold more than 2% of circulating supply, compared to just 0.2% two months ago. K33 Research also highlights the growth of Ethereum-linked derivatives, particularly the VolatilityShares 2x leveraged ETF. This product has increased its exposure by the equivalent of 456,000 ETH since June and now represents around 61% of CME ETH futures open interest, or 1.14 million ETH. This concentrated demand for leveraged exposure reflects strong appetite for Ethereum’s upside potential, alongside heavy spot ETF inflows.
On the Bitcoin side, conditions are more uncertain. Futures and options cooled after July’s producer price index came in hotter than expected, which pushed BTC down sharply from $121,000 to $117,700 within minutes, triggering more than $1 billion in liquidations. CME futures premiums fell back to 5.5% annualized, and open interest, while slightly higher, remains near May lows. Options market volatility increased as investors paid more for downside protection. Finally, while Bitcoin ETFs ended the second quarter at a record $134.6 billion in assets, fueled by price appreciation and institutional reallocations, net flows weakened in August. Spot BTC’s average daily volume settled around $3.4 billion, with spikes in volatility tied to macro announcements. Overall, Bitcoin’s correlation with Ethereum remains strong, while its ties with gold and the S&P 500 have weakened, leaving room for two-way volatility as major resistance levels approach.
A Bitcoin wallet that had been inactive for seven years resurfaced with a dramatic shift toward Ethereum. According to Lookonchain, this long-time holder—who had originally received more than 100,000 BTC—recently sold a significant portion of holdings to buy about 62,900 ETH, worth nearly $270 million in spot purchases. At the same time, a long derivatives position equivalent to 135,000 ETH, valued at $580 million, was opened. Analysts suspect this is part of a broader strategy by the same entity controlling multiple wallets. Other dormant addresses linked to this “Bitcoin OG” showed large deposits on Hyperliquid before rotating into ETH. Lookonchain claims to have identified six wallets tied to this whale, holding more than 83,000 BTC worth around $9.5 billion. This resurgence of old wallets comes as the market hits new highs, pushing long-term holders to reallocate assets. The timing is notable: Bitcoin recently dropped to around $110,000, its lowest in two weeks, while Ethereum is edging closer to its 2021 all-time high of $4,878. This asset rotation reflects a strategic repositioning in favor of ETH in a volatile market.
Philippine Congressman Miguel Luis Villafuerte recently introduced a bill to establish a national strategic Bitcoin reserve. The initiative calls for the central bank to purchase 2,000 BTC annually for five years, building a total reserve of 10,000 BTC. The assets would be stored in cold storage and subject to a minimum 20-year lockup, making them strictly reserved for financial stability purposes. The bill stipulates that during this period, the bitcoins could only be used to pay down government debt. Once the 20 years have passed, the central bank governor would not be allowed to sell more than 10% of the total within any two-year span, in order to maintain the reserve’s strategic nature.
For Congressman Villafuerte, Bitcoin’s growing role in global financial balance justifies such a measure. The plan would place the Philippines alongside countries like El Salvador and Bhutan, which have already made cryptocurrency a national strategic asset. Currently, several states hold significant reserves, often from seized assets. The U.S. and China are among the largest holders, and worldwide, governments own about 517,000 BTC, roughly 2.5% of the maximum 21 million supply. This Philippine initiative would therefore reinforce the trend of treating Bitcoin as a sovereign long-term resource.
The company Strategy has strengthened its leadership among institutional Bitcoin holders by announcing the purchase of 3,081 additional BTC worth $356.9 million, at an average price of around $115,800 per coin. With this acquisition, its treasury now totals 632,457 BTC, representing more than $70 billion at current prices. Overall, the firm acquired its bitcoins at an average of $73,527, for a total cost of about $46.5 billion, leaving it with nearly $23.5 billion in unrealized gains. The purchases were financed through the company’s stock and preferred share issuance programs. Between August 18 and 24, Strategy raised more than $357 million by selling various classes of securities, including common shares and fixed-coupon preferred shares. These financing instruments, considered attractive by analysts, enable the firm to continue accumulating BTC while maintaining a relatively modest debt profile. The company’s strategy relies on a simple principle: using its stock’s high market valuation compared to the net value of its bitcoin holdings to raise capital and further expand reserves. With a market capitalization of around $112 billion versus $70 billion in BTC, the stock trades at a premium of about 60%, which management views as a strategic advantage. This approach was recently reaffirmed by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, who noted that adopting the “Bitcoin Standard” has generated annualized performance exceeding major indices and top technology stocks.
According to a study published by Goldman Sachs, the stablecoin market could reach several trillion dollars in the coming years. The bank’s researchers believe that payments represent the largest, largely untapped growth potential. So far, stablecoin use has mainly been driven by crypto trading and demand for dollar exposure outside the U.S., but the rise of digital payments could transform the sector. Goldman Sachs projects strong growth for USDC, the stablecoin issued by Circle, whose market cap could climb by $77 billion by the end of 2027. This expansion would be supported by new laws legitimizing the industry. Meanwhile, Tether (USDT) maintains its dominance as the top global issuer, though it remains off-limits to U.S. investors. Circle hopes to benefit from a more favorable climate under a Trump administration seen as more crypto-friendly.
However, some analysts, such as those at Mizuho Securities, warn that competition could slow USDC’s growth. Large U.S. banks, including Bank of America, have already expressed interest in issuing their own dollar-pegged tokens, which could redistribute market share. Tether, for its part, has announced plans to enter the U.S. market despite its current exclusion. Even at the institutional level, expectations remain ambitious. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently said the market for dollar-backed stablecoins, secured by Treasuries, could easily surpass $2 trillion. In his view, this would expand global dollar use via digital tokens and could far exceed that estimate.
Bitcoin’s recent pullback from its $124,500 peak has sparked concerns about a possible market top. Yet, according to several analysts, there are no signs that the rally is over. All 30 widely watched peak indicators remain neutral. Metrics such as the Puell Multiple (1.39 compared to a danger threshold of 2.2) or the MVRV Z-Score confirm the asset is far from the overheated zones that have historically marked cycle peaks. On-chain data shows a typical capitulation pattern: new buyers, those holding BTC for less than a month, are selling at a loss (-3.5% on average), while more seasoned investors remain in profit (+4.5% for short-term holders). This transfer of coins to stronger hands is seen as healthy consolidation, laying the foundation for the next upward move.
The market was also shaken by about $70 million in long positions liquidated when the price briefly fell below $111,000. This reset drove down open interest and cumulative buyer volumes on Binance, signaling a withdrawal by overexposed traders. For some analysts, this “reset” lowers downside risks and sets the stage for a recovery, with a liquidity zone around $117,000–$118,000 likely to attract price action.
Finally, from a technical perspective, the current 12% correction is modest compared to the 20%–30% pullbacks seen in previous phases of this bull cycle. As long as the price stays above the 20-week EMA (around $108,000), the scenario of a return to recent highs remains intact, with a potential target of $150,000 by the end of 2025. Conversely, a clear break below this threshold could trigger a deeper drop toward the 50-week EMA near $95,000, which has historically marked local bottoms in past bull market corrections.
The presented information is as of August 26th, 2025, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.
