Crypto Bulletin – Week 415

According to several analysts, this rapid decline was not triggered by any specific news, but rather by an unexpected surge in sell volume. This initial movement appears to have set off a series of automatic liquidations, amplified by an unusually high level of leveraged positions. More than 180,000 traders were liquidated within 24 hours, for a total exceeding $500 million, mainly on long positions in Bitcoin and Ether.

On a monthly basis, November proved to be particularly difficult for Bitcoin, marking its worst performance for this period since 2018, with a decline of around 17%. In comparison, November 2018 saw a true market capitulation, with losses exceeding 36%. Despite this challenging backdrop, some commentators argue that this liquidity flush could ultimately be healthy, as it helps eliminate the excess leverage that had been weighing on the market.

For more optimistic observers, this violent correction could even lay the groundwork for a more stable recovery. They note that lower liquidity zones were quickly cleared and that several technical signals often associated with trend reversals are now appearing. Part of the market therefore sees this as a necessary reset rather than a sign of fundamental weakness.

Recent data indicates a notable shift in Bitcoin holders’ behavior: large investors, traditionally the main source of accumulation, have slowed their purchases, while retail wallets—those holding less than one bitcoin—have been actively buying the dips. This divergence, observed as the price briefly dropped below $86,000, is often viewed as a late-cycle signal, where the market becomes more vulnerable to liquidity shocks.

The violent correction during the Asian session erased massive value: roughly $144 billion vanished from the crypto market within hours, with more than $600 million in liquidations, mostly long positions. Analysts say this reflects an “emotional reset” among short-term traders. Stablecoin flows and exchange balances, however, show that buying power remains available, although further selling pressure is still possible.

The decline also occurred amid negative developments from Asia. The Bank of Japan’s more hawkish tone, hinting at a December rate hike, heightened market tensions. At the same time, China’s services sector contracted for the first time in nearly three years, stoking concerns over regional demand. Added to this were comments from Strategy executives suggesting they could sell bitcoins if financial conditions tightened—a statement that fueled panic among leveraged traders.

Despite these headwinds, some macroeconomic factors remain supportive: the end of quantitative tightening in the United States, rising odds of rate cuts, and renewed inflows into crypto investment products after a difficult November. Bitcoin, however, has not reacted positively to these signals, staying near $86,500. To regain stability, analysts believe the asset must reclaim the low-$90,000 range and show clear improvement in ETF and on-chain flows. Until then, the market could remain highly volatile, with sharp swings in both directions.

Even with elevated volatility, specialists do not view this downturn as the beginning of a long-term bear market. Rather, they interpret it as a correction within a broader bullish cycle, where Bitcoin may be attempting to establish a durable bottom before a potential new uptrend. They emphasize that a true bear market would require a massive exit of institutional capital, collapsing narratives, and a long-lasting drop in investor interest—none of which are occurring today.

Looking further ahead, macroeconomic developments will be crucial. The end of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle removes a structural headwind, but its positive effects will take time to materialize. Several analysts compare the current phase to 2019, when markets only regained momentum six to twelve months after the final tightening measures. Until then, Bitcoin may remain stuck in a slow-building, directionless pattern.

For 2026, some analysts foresee potential upside toward the $110,000 to $135,000 zone, provided several conditions align: supportive guidance from the Fed, two or three additional rate cuts by mid-year, balance sheet stability, and continued institutional adoption. However, they warn that a break below $75,000 would invalidate this scenario and could trigger a deeper decline.

Vanguard, long reluctant to embrace digital assets, has now made a major shift: the firm will allow clients to trade ETFs and mutual funds focused on Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana. This move places crypto products on equal footing with other non-core assets already available on its platform, such as gold. More than 50 million investors will now gain access to these regulated investment vehicles. The decision follows months of internal review and comes despite a broader crypto downturn. Client demand, however, has remained strong. Vanguard had previously avoided the explosive growth of spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in 2024, which attracted nearly $25 billion in their first month and rose to about $125 billion in under two years. By staying on the sidelines, the firm allowed competitors like BlackRock and its IBIT ETF to dominate flows.

The arrival of Salim Ramji as Vanguard’s CEO in 2024 clearly influenced this pivot. Unlike his predecessor, Ramji has publicly expressed support for Bitcoin and blockchain technologies. His appointment surprised the industry, as he represents the company’s first externally hired chief executive. Before joining Vanguard, he led the iShares division at BlackRock and played a key role in the logistics behind the launch of IBIT. This shift marks a strategic turning point for the world’s second-largest asset manager, which oversees roughly $11 trillion. By finally integrating crypto products into its offering, Vanguard reduces its competitive gap and acknowledges that digital assets—despite their volatility—have become a lasting and growing component of American investment portfolios.

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETFs have been so successful that they have become the asset manager’s primary revenue source—an impressive achievement for a firm overseeing more than 1,400 ETFs and roughly $13.4 trillion in assets. According to a BlackRock Brazil executive, total allocations across the company’s Bitcoin products, including the U.S. IBIT fund and Brazil’s IBIT39, now approach $100 billion, far surpassing initial expectations.

Launched in January 2024, IBIT became the fastest ETF in history to surpass $70 billion in assets under management, achieving this milestone in only 341 days. Despite recent crypto volatility, its assets still exceed $70 billion, supported by over $52 billion in net inflows during its first year. Annual fee revenue is estimated at roughly $245 million as of 2025, making IBIT one of BlackRock’s most profitable products.

This explosive growth is driven by BlackRock’s vast distribution network and strong institutional appetite following U.S. regulatory approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. IBIT now holds more than 3% of Bitcoin’s total supply, and the firm has expanded its crypto offerings with additional BTC-linked products abroad. The recent dip in flows does not concern BlackRock, which notes that occasional outflows are normal during price pullbacks, particularly among retail investors.

BlackRock is also investing in its own product: its Strategic Income Opportunities Portfolio recently increased its IBIT position by 14%, signaling strong internal confidence in continued growth. This underscores Bitcoin’s rising strategic importance within the global investment ecosystem of the financial giant.

Larry Fink and Rob Goldstein, BlackRock’s CEO and COO, now compare tokenization to the early days of the internet—a young technology whose impact could reshape global markets much faster than most people anticipate. In an article published in *The Economist*, they argue that recording asset ownership on digital ledgers could modernize the financial system by improving efficiency, transparency, and accessibility. In their view, distributed ledgers have not inspired such excitement since the invention of double-entry bookkeeping. The executives place tokenization within a long arc of technological change, recalling that financial transactions were once executed by phone and settled through physical certificates before innovations like SWIFT revolutionized cross-border transfers. With the advent of Bitcoin in 2009, a new infrastructure emerged: a shared, verifiable, intermediary-free digital ledger capable of representing almost any asset—from real estate to private debt or currency—on a single, accessible record.

Fink and Goldstein acknowledge that the crypto hype once obscured the true potential of tokenization, but its benefits are now clearer: near-instant settlement, reduced counterparty risk, automation of private-market processes, lower costs, and the ability to fractionalize traditionally inaccessible assets. While still small relative to global markets, tokenized real-world assets have grown rapidly—up roughly 300% in the past 20 months. Much of this early growth has come from emerging markets with limited banking infrastructure. BlackRock is already active in this area, particularly with its BUIDL tokenized money-market fund running on a public blockchain with over $2 billion in value. The firm has also expanded its digital-asset presence through highly successful Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. According to Fink and Goldstein, tokenization will not replace traditional finance anytime soon but will instead create a bridge between established institutions and digital-first innovators like stablecoin issuers, fintechs, and public blockchains. They call on regulators to modernize existing frameworks and implement strong safeguards, digital-identity standards, and investor protections to support this transition.

Strategy—the company formerly known as MicroStrategy—has created a $1.44 billion U.S. dollar reserve to ensure steady dividend payments to shareholders even during Bitcoin downturns. This reserve, funded by selling MSTR equity over recent days, is designed to cover at least 12 months of dividends, with the goal of extending that to 24 months. The intent is to reassure volatility-averse investors that Bitcoin’s price fluctuations will not affect their payouts.

Despite this buffer, the company does not rule out selling Bitcoin if needed. CEO Phong Le noted that Strategy may be forced to liquidate part of its holdings if the company’s market-adjusted net asset value (mNAV) falls below 1. Michael Saylor—long known for saying Bitcoin should “never be sold”—acknowledged that the firm must be prepared to sell BTC or BTC derivatives to fund dividends in certain scenarios. He emphasized, however, that even in selling, Strategy could continue increasing its long-term Bitcoin reserves.

The firm, which pivoted in 2020 to become the world’s largest Bitcoin treasury, now holds roughly 650,000 BTC—about 3.1% of the total supply—worth around $56 billion. This includes 130 BTC purchased over the past week after a brief pause in accumulation. Strategy relies heavily on issuing equity to finance dividends, a model that only works when its mNAV stays above 1, explaining why BTC sales may become necessary in downturns.

News of this shift caused MSTR shares to drop more than 8%, deepening a broader decline since last year’s peak. Still, prediction markets estimate only a 6% chance that Strategy will sell Bitcoin before year-end. The firm is therefore counting on its dollar reserve and flexible asset management to navigate volatility while maintaining its dividend policy.

Recent technical data suggests Bitcoin may be approaching a major bottom near $87,000. A key indicator—the velocity RSI—has plunged to extremely low levels, comparable only to those seen at the end of past bear markets. This metric, which tracks momentum exhaustion by incorporating the speed of price changes, has dropped below 10—a threshold rarely reached since the 2018 and 2022 cycle lows, which preceded major market resets.
 

For some analysts, this setup suggests Bitcoin is undergoing a significant cyclical reset. The velocity RSI is viewed as one of the most reliable tools for identifying extreme seller exhaustion and the formation of a durable floor. Its flashing of levels historically associated with major cycle endings is noteworthy, though it does not guarantee an immediate rebound.

The presented information is as of December 2nd, 2025, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.