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The imminent end of the American government shutdown, which has lasted for over forty days, could allow the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) to fully resume their activities. These two agencies, essential to the supervision of the digital asset sector, had until now been operating with limited staff, restricted to urgent matters. Their return to normal operations would coincide with the resumption of legislative work on cryptocurrency regulation, which had been interrupted for more than a month. This restart, however, will take place in a complex context marked by the transition of power from Joe Biden to Donald Trump, as well as by some staff turnover within the agencies.
Before the shutdown, the SEC had planned to introduce an “innovation exemption” to accelerate the launch of blockchain-related products and services. If the project resumes, the commission could grant “regulatory exemptions” (exemptive relief), allowing certain companies to operate outside the framework that applies to traditional financial institutions. At the same time, the CFTC, led by Caroline Pham, aims to see the launch of spot crypto trading platforms and tokenized financial products by the end of the year. The two regulators have also been working together more closely than usual, an encouraging sign for the revival of their joint agenda.
During the shutdown, several crypto ETFs were nonetheless able to launch thanks to a simplified listing mechanism approved before the crisis. Some firms took advantage of SEC guidance allowing them to file S-1 registration forms without waiting for a delaying amendment. This made it possible to bring Solana-, Litecoin-, and HBAR-based products to market. Upon reopening, the SEC could either automatically validate these filings after the standard 20-day period or resume a more thorough review with additional exchanges of information. The agency could also temporarily pause certain authorizations to finalize its technical comments.
Politically, the shutdown slowed congressional discussions on future crypto legislation by about six weeks. The Senate and the House are each working on their own versions of the bill, seeking to clarify the division of responsibilities between the SEC and the CFTC and to define the concept of “ancillary assets” to distinguish cryptocurrencies considered as securities. The Senate banking and agriculture committees will need to harmonize their proposals to present a unified bill to President Trump. However, the upcoming election cycle could complicate the process, even as the nomination of the next CFTC chair, Mike Selig, still awaits confirmation.
The Bitcoin market, meanwhile, experienced a sharp rebound after the announcement of a Senate deal to end the government shutdown, a development seen as a major macroeconomic relief. Within 24 hours, Bitcoin gained more than 4%, reaching an intraday high of $106,491, while total crypto market capitalization rose 4.7% to $3.68 trillion. According to several analysts, the end of the U.S. budget standoff could restore risk appetite and improve overall liquidity—two key factors supporting the current bullish trend in cryptocurrencies.
Experts believe that a government reopening would strengthen institutional confidence and stabilize U.S. Treasury flows, thereby creating a more favorable environment for digital assets. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, noted that removing uncertainty around public spending would help markets recover, while Shivam Thakral, CEO of BuyUcoin, emphasized the positive psychological impact such a resolution would have on investors. This improvement in sentiment is already reflected in prediction markets, where the probability of the shutdown ending before November 15 has climbed to 91%.
President Donald Trump’s announcement of a potential “dividend” payment of $2,000 per person also helped boost markets. Although Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later tempered expectations by mentioning possible tax cuts instead, this prospect of fiscal stimulus revived hopes of a liquidity injection similar to the stimulus checks distributed in 2021. Such measures could stimulate consumer spending, support corporate earnings, and reinvigorate risk markets—including cryptocurrencies.
In the short term, experts expect that confirmation of the shutdown’s end could propel Bitcoin into a new bullish phase. Forecasts range between $120,000 and $150,000 by year’s end, provided the Federal Reserve maintains an accommodative monetary policy and liquidity continues to improve. Some analysts, such as those at Tiger Research, are even more optimistic, envisioning a scenario where Bitcoin could reach $200,000, though persistent inflation, a stronger dollar, or renewed geopolitical tensions could limit this upside potential.
Recent on-chain data show a strong return of large investors to Ethereum, suggesting a local bottom could be forming around $3,200. Since April, wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH have increased their balances by more than 50%, while medium-sized holders have reduced theirs. This discounted accumulation, observed after the drop toward $3,000, coincides with unusually high spot-market volume, a pattern often associated with trend reversals. Analysts see it as a potential recovery signal, assuming global macroeconomic conditions remain stable.
According to Shawn Young of MEXC Research, this phase resembles previous cycle lows, when whales absorbed selling pressure from short-term holders. Several indicators support this view: the stability of the ETH/BTC ratio, a 25% increase in transaction activity since September, and the normalization of the discount on staked Ethereum after October’s crash. Some analysts note a similar dynamic for Bitcoin, with institutional investors re-entering the market to take advantage of what they perceive as attractive price levels.
This renewed interest coincides with the upcoming Fusaka upgrade, scheduled for December 3. This major Ethereum improvement aims to enhance network capacity by introducing “dedicated data lanes” for Layer 2 solutions, thereby reducing costs and speeding up transactions. The addition of Peer Data Availability Sampling will allow nodes to process smaller data fragments instead of entire blocks, lightening validation loads and promoting greater decentralization. These upgrades could drive renewed adoption of the blockchain in real-world applications and decentralized finance while opening the door to broader participation.
Kazakhstan, for its part, plans to launch a national cryptocurrency reserve fund worth between $500 million and $1 billion by early 2026, according to Bloomberg. Funded primarily by assets seized or repatriated from abroad, as well as proceeds from state-backed mining operations, this initiative represents a major step toward officially integrating digital assets into the country’s national economic strategy. Unlike other sovereign funds, Kazakhstan’s will not invest directly in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies but instead focus on exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and crypto-related companies—an institutional, diversified approach designed to benefit from the sector’s growth while limiting direct exposure to token volatility.
Tether, the issuer of the USDT stablecoin, took advantage of the recent market pullback to purchase 961 bitcoins worth roughly $97 million, according to on-chain data. This move aligns with the company’s policy of allocating 15% of its net profits to Bitcoin acquisitions. With 87,296 BTC now in its portfolio—valued at about $8.8 billion—Tether ranks among the largest global holders, sitting on an unrealized gain estimated at $4.55 billion, with an average purchase price of $49,121 per coin.
Some observers view this as a sign of confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value, while others interpret it as simple portfolio rebalancing. According to Gleb Kurovskiy of Luminary Bank, Tether recently increased its exposure to precious metals while reducing its Bitcoin holdings—a strategy consistent with recent market trends, as gold appreciated while Bitcoin lost over 10%. Nevertheless, this decision comes as the crypto market shows signs of reaccumulation, a phase often marked by institutional investors buying during liquidity stress. Analysts like Rachel Lin of SynFutures say the move confirms Tether’s intention to diversify its reserves into tangible assets—Bitcoin and gold—to hedge against fiat currency depreciation. She sees it as a “vote of confidence” in Bitcoin’s role as a hard asset and global store of value. In parallel, analyst Enmanuel Cardozo notes that such large-scale purchases during downturns reflect the behavior of long-term investors who prefer to accumulate when fear dominates the market.
From a technical perspective, it has been encouraging to see Bitcoin remain above its 50-week moving average. At the time of writing, that same support level is currently being tested. It has held since early 2023, and finding buyers here could mark the start of a trend reversal following the recent weeks of decline.
Please note that this communication will not be published next week, as the author will be on vacation.
The presented information is as of November 11th, 2025, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.
