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The cryptocurrency market rebounded on Friday following the release of the U.S. inflation report, which had been delayed due to the partial government shutdown. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3% year-over-year in September, slightly below expectations of 3.1%. This slight slowdown in inflation reignited risk appetite and supported Bitcoin’s advance, which gained about 2% to reach $111,300, while Ethereum and Solana also rose by just over 2%.
The report confirmed that inflation, after bottoming at 2.3% in April, remains moderately high but under control. Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, also stabilized at 3%. These figures come at a pivotal moment, as the Federal Reserve prepares for another monetary policy meeting where a quarter-point interest rate cut is widely anticipated.
On prediction markets such as Myriad, investor sentiment improved — “greed” now outweighs “fear,” following optimistic comments by U.S. President Donald Trump about a potential trade deal with China. The easing of trade tensions and the prospect of monetary loosening have created a more favorable environment for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Despite this renewed optimism, the Fed remains cautious. Its chairman, Jerome Powell, reminded that there is “no risk-free path” for monetary policy, stressing the delicate balance between fighting inflation and supporting employment. If the disinflation trend continues, the central bank may deem it appropriate to further reduce borrowing costs before the end of the year, thereby supporting the bullish momentum seen in crypto markets.
Bitcoin then saw a sharp rebound over the weekend, fueled by optimism surrounding trade discussions between the U.S. and China. The asset climbed 3.5%, reaching around $115,400, benefiting from renewed global risk appetite. This upswing follows a period of correction, with Bitcoin still about 6.5% below its all-time high of $126,000 reached on October 6. Negotiations held in Malaysia allowed U.S. and Chinese representatives to outline a preliminary framework described as encouraging. This conciliatory tone restored investor confidence and boosted high-beta assets such as Bitcoin, often seen as a barometer of global liquidity. According to Daniel Liu, CEO of Republic Technologies, the recent rise in Bitcoin reflects more of a psychological market reaction to expectations of macroeconomic easing than a fundamental shift in trade relations between the two powers.
Crypto investment funds recorded massive capital inflows totaling $921 million last week, according to CoinShares. This renewed interest is mainly driven by growing expectations of continued Federal Reserve rate cuts amid lower-than-expected inflation. After several weeks of volatility and fiscal uncertainty tied to the government shutdown, investor confidence has clearly returned. Trading volumes in exchange-traded products (ETPs) reached $39 billion, well above the yearly average. The U.S. led regional inflows with $843 million, followed by Germany, which posted one of its strongest weeks on record with $502 million. Switzerland, by contrast, saw $359 million in outflows, likely tied to asset transfers between institutions rather than active selling. In smaller markets like Hong Kong, activity remained limited.
Bitcoin captured nearly all investor attention, accounting for $931 million in inflows — almost the entire weekly total. Since the start of the year, cumulative flows into Bitcoin products have reached $30.2 billion, still below the 2024 record of $41.6 billion. According to James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, this trend reflects a structural shift: investors now favor long-term diversification over speculation. He notes that in 2018, only 50% of Bitcoin holders kept their assets for more than 150 days, compared to 75% today. This behavioral change underscores Bitcoin’s growing role as a store of value asset, with its correlation to equities or bonds now more influenced by monetary policy than by short-term market speculation.
Mt. Gox, the Japanese exchange that collapsed in 2014 after losing 850,000 BTC, has postponed its creditor repayment date for a third time, now set for October 31, 2026. The trustee stated that most base and early lump-sum payments have been completed, but some claims remain incomplete or administratively delayed. Around 19,500 creditors have already received repayments in Bitcoin or Bitcoin Cash via Kraken and Bitstamp. About 34,700 BTC — valued at roughly $4 billion — remain to be distributed.
From a macroeconomic perspective, Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, noted that easing tensions between Washington and Beijing has boosted market confidence. According to him, if this positive momentum continues, Bitcoin may never fall below the symbolic $100,000 mark again. He attributes this resilience to several combined factors: an expected Fed rate cut, strong tech earnings, and renewed inflows into Bitcoin ETFs.
Meanwhile, Michael Saylor continues his aggressive accumulation strategy: his company, Strategy, added another 390 BTC for about $43 million at an average price of $111,117. The firm now holds 640,808 BTC — more than 3% of the total circulating supply — worth approximately $74 billion. Despite this expansion, Strategy’s stock remains below its summer highs, as investors appear more cautious in the short term, even though Saylor’s long-term stance remains decidedly bullish.
President Donald Trump granted a presidential pardon to Changpeng Zhao, the former CEO of Binance, marking a major shift in the White House’s stance toward the cryptocurrency industry. The announcement, made by Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, was accompanied by sharp criticism of the Biden administration, which she accused of waging a “war on crypto.” According to Leavitt, Zhao was prosecuted despite no evidence of fraud or identifiable victims. She added that this decision symbolized the end of government hostility toward the sector.
Changpeng Zhao, known as CZ, responded with gratitude on X (formerly Twitter), thanking Trump and pledging to help make the United States “the crypto capital of the world.” Binance and its current CEO, Richard Teng, also praised the decision, calling it a pivotal moment for the industry’s evolution. Teng said the company was entering a new chapter focused on accessibility, trust, and innovation while working with policymakers to build a more open global financial system.
The pardon could pave the way for Zhao’s potential return to Binance’s leadership, though that remains uncertain. Under his 2023 plea agreement, he was permanently barred from running the exchange after admitting to failing to implement an effective anti–money laundering program. Zhao served four months in prison and paid a $50 million fine, while Binance agreed to a record $4.3 billion settlement. Some observers, including Trump allies, argued that the case against Zhao was weak. However, the decision sparked intense political controversy. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren condemned the pardon, accusing Zhao of financial ties to the Trump family’s crypto projects, notably World Liberty Financial. She warned that Congress must act to prevent such conflicts in upcoming market structure legislation. In response to criticism, the White House reaffirmed that each clemency request undergoes rigorous legal review before reaching the president’s desk.
Zcash returned to the spotlight in October, buoyed by renewed interest in privacy-focused cryptocurrencies and the approach of its upcoming halving on November 18. Within a month, the token surged from $54 to around $372, surpassing its 2021 peak and ranking among the market’s top performers. This 500% rally emerged at the intersection of speculative enthusiasm and the broader revival of digital privacy concerns. According to Shivam Thakral, CEO of BuyUCoin, Zcash’s meteoric rise stems from a “perfect storm” of catalysts: the imminent halving, viral predictions like Arthur Hayes’s $10,000 price target, and endorsements from prominent figures such as Naval Ravikanth and former Coinbase engineer Mert Mumtaz. Grayscale’s move to give investors exposure to ZEC further accelerated the trend, while other anonymity coins like Monero and Dash posted double-digit gains.
This comeback highlights a reassessment of privacy coins’ role as governments tighten surveillance and regulatory frameworks. For many investors, Zcash — despite its age — offers a straightforward and compelling privacy narrative that resonates as digital freedom becomes a renewed point of debate.
Notably, the Rivemont Crypto Fund currently holds a position in Zcash.
The key question for investors now is whether Bitcoin has already peaked at $126,500 in October or still has room to rise. Traditionally, the most explosive phases occur roughly 18 months after a halving, yet this cycle lacks the typical hallmarks of a market top: volatility remains low, sentiment subdued, and there’s no sign of the euphoria seen in 2017 or 2021. Despite three consecutive bullish years, market structure suggests the current cycle may not be over.
Several macro factors reinforce this view. Unlike past peaks that coincided with rate hikes, the Federal Reserve is now in an easing cycle — over 100 basis points have already been cut since September 2024, with further reductions expected. Meanwhile, the end of quantitative tightening and improving global liquidity create a favorable environment for risk assets like Bitcoin. This looser monetary backdrop could extend the bull phase before the true cycle top.
The introduction of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has profoundly transformed market dynamics. Since their launch in early 2024, corrections have been shallower — rarely exceeding 20% — and consistent institutional inflows have helped stabilize prices. These products, along with the addition of ETF options, have made the market more mature, reducing the likelihood of the dramatic blow-off tops typical of previous cycles.
Finally, despite notable gains against the dollar, Bitcoin has yet to surpass its previous highs relative to key benchmarks like gold and major U.S. tech stocks. Gold, down 10% from its peak, and the “Magnificent 7” stocks still hold a relative advantage. Combined with lingering economic uncertainty — tariff wars, industrial slowdown, and geopolitical tension — this lack of exuberance suggests the market hasn’t yet reached its final peak. In short, while some believe the bull cycle has ended, most indicators show that Bitcoin may still have room to grow before hitting its true top.
The presented information is as of October 28th, 2025, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.
