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Bitcoin has just reached a new all-time high above $126,000, as the U.S. dollar experiences its worst year since 1973. According to analysts from The Kobeissi Letter, this moment marks a true macroeconomic turning point. Unusually, safe-haven assets like gold—approaching $4,000 per ounce—are rising in tandem with stock markets, with the S&P 500 up more than 40% in six months. Such a strong correlation between defensive assets and risk-on markets signals a deep shift in how investors view U.S. monetary policy.
Observers note that this rush into tangible assets and cryptocurrencies stems from two key forces: a rebound in inflation and a weakening labor market, both of which are prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The U.S. dollar, down more than 10% since the start of the year, has lost roughly 40% of its purchasing power since 2000. This accelerated depreciation is driving investors toward assets seen as long-term stores of value—chief among them, Bitcoin.
This BTC rally is also unfolding against a turbulent political backdrop: a partial U.S. government shutdown, downward revisions to employment data, and waning confidence in traditional institutions. Combined, these factors strengthen Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value independent from Washington’s political and fiscal decisions.
Experts including Fabian Dori from Sygnum Bank believe Bitcoin’s recent surge is rooted primarily in these macroeconomic and institutional dynamics. As political tensions rise and the monetary system shows signs of fragility, investors increasingly view Bitcoin not merely as a speculative asset but as a form of monetary technology designed to preserve wealth amid the dollar’s decline and global uncertainty.
Institutional demand remains strong and is clearly contributing to the current bull run. Joe DiPasquale, CEO of BitBull Capital, notes that the prolonged U.S. government shutdown has intensified the search for safe-haven assets, reinforcing Bitcoin’s status as an alternative store of value. Last week, 23 companies increased their Bitcoin holdings, and the top 100 corporate holders now collectively possess a record 1,042,245 BTC.
U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also recorded massive inflows on Monday, totaling $1.21 billion—their second-largest daily intake since inception. This renewed enthusiasm coincided with a fresh all-time high of $126,296. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) dominated, drawing in nearly $970 million alone as it closes in on the symbolic $100 billion assets-under-management threshold. According to Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas, IBIT is now BlackRock’s most profitable fund ever, surpassing even its flagship S&P 500 and Russell 1000 ETFs. With over 791,000 BTC in its holdings, IBIT is on track to become the fastest fund in history to reach $100 billion in assets—far outpacing VOO’s previous record of more than 2,000 days. Since their January 2024 launch, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted roughly $61.5 billion in net inflows and now manage around $170 billion in total.
Bitcoin’s new high above $126,000 also sparked a rally across mining-related stocks. Investors betting on continued price appreciation sent shares of mining companies soaring: Hive Digital rose 23%, Bitfarms gained 14%, Riot Platforms added 10%, and Marathon (MARA) and CleanSpark each climbed about 7%. This surge reflects renewed optimism for both Bitcoin’s price and the mining sector’s outlook, now financially stronger and technologically more advanced. Several firms—Hive, Marathon, and CleanSpark—have boosted their hashrate and expanded their BTC reserves. Marathon now holds over 52,000 BTC and CleanSpark more than 13,000, a hoarding strategy that directly benefits from rising prices. Meanwhile, options betting on Bitcoin reaching $140,000 have multiplied, signaling that institutional traders expect further upside. The total crypto market capitalization hit a new record of $4.29 trillion, up 23% year-to-date, confirming that Bitcoin’s rally is built on structurally solid foundations and sustained institutional demand.
Investment firm VanEck believes that, over the long term, Bitcoin could reach half of gold’s total market value—roughly $13 trillion—implying a theoretical price of around $644,000 per BTC. The forecast is based on the notion that Bitcoin increasingly shares gold’s core attributes: scarcity, resilience to devaluation, and a global store-of-value function. Bitcoin’s market cap currently stands at approximately $2.48 trillion, up more than 12% over the past month after setting a record high of $126,080. However, analysts urge caution regarding the pace of this climb. Derek Lim, head of research at Caladan, believes such an increase—a 5.6x multiple—could realistically unfold over five to ten years rather than in a single cycle. The Bitcoin market, now more mature, tends to exhibit steady growth of $50,000–$60,000 per phase rather than explosive parabolic rallies. In the short term, gold has actually outperformed Bitcoin, with an annual gain of 49% versus 31% for the cryptocurrency.
VanEck’s bullish outlook relies on several structural drivers: growing adoption among younger generations, the expansion of Layer 2 scaling solutions improving transaction efficiency, and rising institutional and central bank participation. By 2050, VanEck projects that Bitcoin could account for 10% of international trade, 5% of domestic trade, and 2.5% of global central bank reserves—pushing its potential price to $2.9 million per coin with a total market cap of $61 trillion. The broader Bitcoin Layer 2 ecosystem could add another $7.6 trillion in value. Analysts also note that the current Bitcoin cycle differs fundamentally from previous ones. Whereas prior peaks typically occurred between 500 and 550 days after a halving, today’s institutional and macroeconomic context—marked by Fed rate cuts and inflationary expectations tied to a potential Trump return—could extend the rally. According to Ryan McMillin of Merkle Tree Capital, this is no longer a speculative frenzy but rather a more structured and sustainable growth phase, underscoring Bitcoin’s maturation into a mainstream financial asset.
JPMorgan has also weighed in with bullish projections. The bank argues that gold’s recent surge enhances Bitcoin’s relative appeal. While JPMorgan’s summer forecast placed Bitcoin at $126,000 by year-end, gold’s rally has prompted the bank to raise its target to $165,000. This outlook aligns with a broader wave of optimism across financial institutions, some of which now anticipate Bitcoin could reach $200,000 before year-end.
Finally, the Rivemont Crypto Fund is currently weighted heavily in Bitcoin, with smaller positions in ETH, SOL, and XRP. The fund is closely monitoring Ethereum, which is rapidly approaching new highs, in view of increasing its exposure.
The presented information is as of October 7th, 2025, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.
