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The cryptocurrency market regained momentum at the end of September, with total capitalization climbing back to around $3.9 trillion. Bitcoin rose 3.5%, climbing back above $114,000 yesterday, while Solana consolidated at over $113 billion in market value. Nearly 95% of the major cryptocurrencies posted gains, a sign of renewed strength after a difficult week marked by significant downward pressure. This rebound has been supported by renewed institutional interest and more favorable macroeconomic conditions.
The crypto trend is also aligning with traditional markets, which continue to recover. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both gained, led notably by tech names like Nvidia and Microsoft. Meanwhile, gold reached a historic high around $3,850 per ounce, reflecting strong demand for safe-haven assets despite the rebound in risk assets. On the monetary side, the Fed cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, but Jerome Powell emphasized persistent uncertainty about inflation, tempering expectations for a long-lasting accommodative cycle.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is showing a moderate recovery but without a clear trend. The RSI is at 52, a neutral zone that reflects no decisive dominance by buyers or sellers. The ADX, which measures trend strength, remains at 18, underlining a directionless market where BTC moves sideways. The only positive signal comes from exponential moving averages (EMA), with the 50-day still above the 200-day. However, the gap is narrowing, raising concerns about the potential formation of a “death cross,” generally seen as bearish.
The possibility of a U.S. government shutdown looms at the end of September and could delay the release of the monthly jobs report, a key indicator for investors to anticipate Fed policy decisions. Such an event would risk increasing market volatility. Analysts argue that the absence of reliable economic data could weaken risk assets in the short term while creating an environment conducive to sharp “drop-and-rebound” moves. History shows the impact of a shutdown is mixed: in October 2013, during a 16-day closure, Bitcoin gained 14% in a strong bull market; in contrast, during the record 35-day closure between December 2018 and January 2019, Bitcoin lost 6% in a bearish environment marked by waning demand. This contrast underscores how much the overall market context determines the real effect of a government shutdown on BTC price.
Today, some suggest conditions resemble 2013 more than 2018. According to Cryptoquant, demand for Bitcoin remains strong heading into Q4, historically a favorable period for the asset. However, prediction markets show caution: nearly 75% of users now doubt the Fed will deliver two rate cuts in 2025, compared to only 40% holding that view at the start of the month.
In summary, if a shutdown occurs, its effect on Bitcoin will largely depend on the broader context and investor psychology. In the short term, uncertainty and lack of official data could trigger instability, but in the medium term, the trend remains influenced by growing demand and the possibility of looser monetary policy.
According to Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, SEC approval of a Solana ETF now seems inevitable. This shift stems from the regulator’s recent adoption of “generic listing” rules, which rendered the timelines tied to 19b-4 filings obsolete. Now the process mainly depends on S-1 registrations, and Solana has just filed its fourth amended version, suggesting an official green light could arrive any day. The potential arrival of a Solana ETF could trigger speculative buying before the announcement, followed by a quick correction once launched, a pattern already seen with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. These offer a useful comparison: spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted over $12 billion in flows in ten weeks, while Ethereum ETFs initially saw capital outflows before stabilizing and reaching about $3.5 billion in inflows over three months.
SWIFT, the network that connects more than 11,500 financial institutions worldwide, announced a strategic partnership with Consensys and about thirty major international banks—including Bank of America, Citi, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, and Wells Fargo—to develop a blockchain-based prototype. The project aims to test a real-time, 24/7 cross-border payment system using a secure ledger and smart contracts to record and validate transactions. The prototype, whose technical details remain unspecified, could run either directly on Ethereum or on Linea, a layer-2 solution incubated by Consensys. The stakes are enormous: if even a small portion of SWIFT’s daily volume were processed on-chain, the impact on Ethereum’s ecosystem would be huge. For perspective, SWIFT processes about 53 million financial messages daily, representing $7.5 trillion in value, while Ethereum’s mainnet handles only about 1.4 million daily transactions. Consensys stresses that this initiative marks a key step toward the convergence of traditional and decentralized finance. Even a 6% shift of SWIFT’s operations to Ethereum would double the network’s transaction volume. For Linea, the effect would be even more dramatic: just 0.5% of SWIFT’s volume would be enough to double its activity.
According to Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, Tether’s trajectory could one day make it the most profitable company in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco. In a client memo, he argued that the idea of a $500 billion valuation for the USDT issuer, while surprising at first glance, makes sense when compared with the vast money markets the company is tapping into. With over 400 million users and growth of 35 million wallets per quarter, Tether has become a key player, particularly in emerging markets, while reinforcing the U.S. dollar’s global role.
The company already holds more than $127 billion in U.S. Treasuries, placing it alongside major economic powers like Germany or the UAE. Hougan estimates that if a significant share of emerging markets shifted to heavy USDT usage, Tether could manage trillions in assets. For instance, a $3 trillion portfolio could generate more profits than Aramco’s $120 billion in 2024. With fewer than 200 employees, Tether already made about $13 billion in profit in 2024 and is diversifying into sectors like AI, energy, telecoms, and Bitcoin mining.
Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, continues its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy. Between September 22 and 28, the company bought an additional 196 BTC for about $22.1 million at an average price of $113,048 each. This brought its total reserves to 640,031 BTC, worth around $71.8 billion, while its total acquisition cost stands at $47.4 billion. That represents more than 3% of Bitcoin’s total supply, with an unrealized gain of $24.4 billion. These purchases were funded by common stock issuances (MSTR) and several perpetual preferred stock programs (STRK, STRC, STRF, and STRD), each with distinct risk-reward profiles. These instruments are part of the “42/42” plan, aiming to raise up to $84 billion by 2027 to continue building Bitcoin reserves, double the original target. Co-founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor again hinted at another filing soon, repeating his mantra, “Always ₿e Stacking.”
Bitcoin recently traded around $113,500, about 4% above its local low of $108,650. Several indicators suggest this may mark the end of the correction. One of the most closely watched is the entity-adjusted dormancy flow, which fell below 250,000—a historically strong buy zone. This same indicator preceded major rebounds, such as in July 2021, before BTC surged to new all-time highs.
Another positive sign is the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) of short-term holders, which turned negative, signaling capitulation among recent buyers. Historically, such capitulation phases mark local bottoms, as they indicate most sellers have already exited, paving the way for recovery led by long-term holders. A similar pattern was seen during April’s bottom, followed by a 65% rally.
Charts further support this optimistic outlook. On a 12-hour timeframe, a V-shaped pattern has formed after a 7.8% drop below $109,000, followed by a swift rebound to current levels. The RSI climbed from 27 (oversold) to 53, signaling growing bullish momentum. On the daily chart, a double-bottom formation projects a target near $118,000, or even $124,500 if resistance is broken.
Some analysts even point to a potential extension toward $140,000 if the barrier between $112,000 and $114,000 is decisively breached. In a post-halving context, often favorable to bullish cycles, the market’s current structure suggests that the bottom may indeed be in and that a new upward movement is taking shape.
The presented information is as of September 30th, 2025, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.
