Client Access 
Communications
Despite a week of declines in the cryptocurrency market, September—historically a bearish month—remains in positive territory so far this year. The Bitcoin market is holding steady around $113,000 as investors await Jerome Powell’s next statements and the release of the core PCE index at the end of the week. Following last week’s sharp correction caused by leverage, analysts believe that futures positions have now normalized and liquidity has returned. The $115,200 threshold is seen as a key pivot: holding above it could open the door to a move back toward all-time highs, but if broken to the downside, the risk of returning to the $105,500–115,000 range increases significantly.
Derivatives markets show signs of gradual stabilization. After more than $1.7 billion in liquidations on Monday, Bitcoin has settled back into its $110,000–120,000 channel, while options interest is concentrated on October calls between $120,000 and $125,000. This trend underscores the importance of upcoming macroeconomic catalysts: Powell’s remarks and the inflation outlook. At the same time, overall open interest has declined, lowering the risk of forced selling and helping to reduce immediate volatility.
Institutional flows, however, remain mixed. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw over $360 million in net outflows on Monday, while Ether-linked products also suffered withdrawals. Yet some indicators point to underlying optimism: large wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have accumulated around 56,000 coins since late August, and exchange reserves have dropped by more than 30,000 BTC in a month. In other words, major holders are taking advantage of the pullback to strengthen their positions, even as Wall Street sends more cautious signals.
Bitcoin mining difficulty has reached a new all-time high of 142.3 trillion, a rise of nearly 30% since the start of the year. This means miners must perform more calculations to validate each block, making mining more computationally intensive. The adjustment reflects an expanding network that recalibrates itself roughly every two weeks to maintain a 10-minute block time. Such growth is generally seen as a sign of strength. As both hashrate and difficulty rise, the network becomes more secure, making a “51% attack” increasingly unlikely. Experts note that this adjustment mechanism is one of the protocol’s most elegant features, allowing the system to self-regulate like a living organism.
That said, this greater complexity doesn’t impact all miners equally. Those with efficient infrastructure and access to cheap energy can continue to thrive, while weaker operators risk being pushed out. Bitcoin’s high price plays a crucial role, as strong valuations can offset rising electricity and equipment costs. Constant improvements in mining hardware also mitigate energy impact: newer machines are more efficient, lowering cost per unit of computation. As long as Bitcoin prices remain elevated, large miners are expected to stay online, reinforcing the network’s resilience and competitiveness.
Ethereum developers have chosen to accelerate their roadmap, setting December 3, 2025, as the activation date for the new “Fusaka” protocol, earlier than its original 2026 target. This upgrade aims to support the growth of rollups—transaction-bundling solutions that cut costs—by gradually increasing temporary data space known as “blobs.” The idea is to phase in capacity rather than make a sudden leap, reducing technical risks. Tests on Fusaka Devnet-5 revealed setup errors and software bugs that limited evaluation time, but developers nonetheless agreed to raise blob capacity in two stages: first 10/15 per block, then 14/21. A new testnet, Devnet-6, will verify these parameters before public testnet activation in the fall and eventual mainnet launch.
This progressive approach responds to the urgent need for rollups to handle more transactions at lower cost as network activity grows. Technical discussions also highlighted issues with Prysm, a major Ethereum validator client, which struggled under heavy load, leading to orphaned blocks. Additional improvements are underway, including a lighter version of the ckzg library for blob verification, to ease client integration. Fusaka follows May’s Pectra upgrade, which boosted data capacity and usability. While Pectra marked a turning point, experts warned that scaling pressures would persist. Fusaka addresses this by introducing higher blob limits sooner than expected, ensuring smoother and cheaper transactions as adoption expands.
The FTX Recovery Trust has announced another step in its creditor repayment plan. On September 30, a third wave of payouts totaling $1.6 billion will be made. Four groups of creditors will receive funds, with reimbursements ranging from 78% to 120% of the value of their locked holdings at the time of the exchange’s collapse in November 2022. Payments will be processed through Bitgo, Kraken, and Payoneer. This distribution is part of the gradual restitution plan initiated after FTX’s 2022 bankruptcy. The exchange, which allowed customers to buy, sell, and speculate on cryptocurrencies, imploded after fraudulent management by founder Sam Bankman-Fried and close associates. The collapse stemmed largely from misuse of client deposits to cover risky bets by Alameda Research, its sister company. The downfall of FTX is considered one of the largest financial scandals in modern history, surpassing even Enron according to restructuring lawyer John J. Ray III, leaving billions lost and hundreds of thousands of victims worldwide.
Japanese firm Metaplanet has taken a major step in its Bitcoin strategy by purchasing 5,419 BTC for roughly $632.5 million at an average of $116,724 per coin. This acquisition raises its reserves to 25,555 BTC—worth around $2.91 billion—and moves it into the fifth spot globally among corporate Bitcoin holders, behind firms like Strategy and Marathon Digital. The purchase, largely financed by a $1.45 billion international share offering, already fulfills 85% of Metaplanet’s 2025 year-end target of 30,000 BTC. The company also aims for 100,000 BTC by 2026. According to President Simon Gerovich, this strategy has become a core growth engine, generating steady revenues and profits since Bitcoin treasury management was formalized as a business line in late 2024. Metaplanet has reported impressive returns on its positions—95.6% in Q1 2025, 129.4% in Q2, and 10.3% so far in Q3—and has recently created a Miami-based subsidiary, Metaplanet Income Corp., with $15 million to separate derivatives trading from treasury activities.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation, purchasing another 850 BTC between September 15 and 21 for nearly $100 million at an average of $117,344 each. Its total reserves now stand at 639,835 BTC, worth around $72 billion at current prices. Bought for a total cost of $47.3 billion including fees, these holdings represent over 3% of Bitcoin’s maximum supply and carry about $25 billion in unrealized gains. Funding comes from stock issuances, including Class A common shares (MSTR) and multiple series of perpetual preferred shares (STRK, STRC, STRF, STRD), each with varying risk and reward profiles. This strategy is part of the company’s “42/42” plan, which targets raising $84 billion by 2027 for Bitcoin acquisitions, doubling the initial “21/21” plan.
Deutsche Bank analysts argue that Bitcoin’s adoption mirrors that of gold. Like the precious metal once did, Bitcoin has faced skepticism and suspicion. But as institutional adoption grows and regulatory uncertainty lifts in key markets like the U.S. and UK, its volatility is declining. In August, 30-day volatility hit historic lows despite record prices. Analysts say this reflects a gradual decoupling between Bitcoin’s price and volatility, signaling maturity and acceptance in traditional portfolios. They even project that by 2030, both Bitcoin and gold could coexist on central bank balance sheets, with emerging markets—struggling with inflation—particularly benefiting from Bitcoin reserves. Deutsche Bank reiterates its thesis that Bitcoin is “the gold of the 21st century.”
Bitcoin’s pullback toward $112,000 may represent a local bottom, supported by multiple indicators. After dipping to $111,571, the coin is down only about 10% from its all-time high of $124,500. Signals suggest this is more consolidation than breakdown. U.S. retail demand remains strong, reflected by a positive Coinbase Premium Index, while institutional demand is robust, with nearly $1 billion in inflows into Bitcoin products in a week, including $876 million into U.S. spot ETFs. Major players like Metaplanet and Strategy continue to accumulate, underscoring structural confidence.
Another bullish factor is the steady decline of Bitcoin reserves on exchanges, as coins are moved into private wallets. This is often interpreted as long-term conviction and reduces available supply for selling, helping ease downside pressure.
Finally, despite continued short-selling activity in derivatives markets, Bitcoin’s price has held within the $110,000–120,000 range, signaling absorption by long-term buyers. With strong retail and institutional support, shrinking exchange reserves, and lower liquidation risks, conditions suggest Bitcoin has likely found a solid floor near $112,000.
The presented information is as of September 23rd, 2025, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.
