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It was an excellent week for Bitcoin, as the asset turned positive for the year, unlike major stock indices. Last week, investments in digital asset products surged by $3.4 billion, according to a CoinShares study. This remarkable rebound comes after several weeks of capital outflows, largely driven by economic uncertainty fueled by Donald Trump’s tariffs. It was one of the best weeks ever recorded for crypto funds, including those linked to Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. In comparison, just a week earlier, year-to-date inflows stood at only $171 million.
On Monday, Bitcoin remained relatively stable around $95,000 amid a cautious market atmosphere. Investors are closely watching trade negotiations and awaiting critical economic data this week, particularly regarding employment and inflation, to assess the potential impact of Trump’s tariffs. Attention is now turning to upcoming indicators, with expectations of a decline in job openings in March and a modest 0.4% rise in inflation measured by the PCE index. According to Wintermute, a specialist in OTC crypto markets, if the data show that tariffs are not significantly worsening inflation or weakening the economy, it could reinvigorate financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.
The 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has sharply rebounded in recent weeks, rising from -0.67 in February to 0.54 by the end of April, according to data published by The Block. This turnaround follows a marked phase of “decoupling” in February, during which Bitcoin and gold moved in opposite directions. The renewed correlation seems closely tied to growing global economic uncertainty, amplified by new U.S. tariff announcements and recent political events. In February, while Bitcoin’s price dropped more than 17% to around $84,000, gold rose slightly to $2,850 per ounce. This sharp divergence led to a temporary collapse in their correlation. Since then, the two assets have followed a similar path: after Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” economic announcements, Bitcoin gained over 10%, and gold rose by more than 5%, while the U.S. Dollar Index fell by around 4%, boosting the appeal of safe-haven assets.
This trend fits a historical pattern. Since 2020, every time the Bitcoin-gold correlation has fallen below -0.50, a strong positive rebound has been observed, usually within a week. The notable exception was December 2022, when it took just over two weeks for the correlation to recover. These observations suggest that extreme “decoupling” phases between Bitcoin and gold are typically short-lived and followed by strong “recoupling” periods, often with correlations reaching 0.8 or higher. Thus, despite its reputation as a speculative asset, Bitcoin continues to behave similarly to gold during times of economic stress, reinforcing its image as “digital gold.”
Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have just hit their lowest level in seven years, dropping to 2.488 million BTC last Friday, according to CryptoQuant data. Although a slight rebound to 2.492 million BTC was observed over the weekend, the level remains historically low, comparable to October 2018. This decrease in reserves comes as Bitcoin’s price stabilizes around $95,000.
Mastercard is accelerating its integration of stablecoins into global payments, allowing consumers to pay and merchants to receive settlements in stable digital currencies. Through its “Mastercard Move” program, users will be able to spend their stablecoins via traditional cards at over 150 million merchant locations and transfer funds directly into their bank accounts. Additionally, the company announced a partnership with OKX to issue a new crypto card and is collaborating with issuers like Circle (USDC) and Paxos to boost stablecoin payment adoption. As the U.S. Congress works on stablecoin regulation, Mastercard is multiplying alliances with crypto industry players to position itself in this rapidly growing market. Forecasts predict that stablecoins, already exceeding $230 billion in supply, could facilitate transactions totaling trillions of dollars in the coming years. In the first half of 2024 alone, they have already generated over $5.1 trillion in global payments.
Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, recently announced the acquisition of an additional 15,355 bitcoins for a value of $1.4 billion, marking one of its largest purchases this year. With this latest transaction, the Tysons, Virginia-based company now holds around 554,000 bitcoins, valued at approximately $52.3 billion at current prices. The funding for this latest acquisition primarily came from selling common stock, accounting for 97% of the raised funds, along with issuing preferred STRK shares, which brought in an additional $37.5 million. This move is part of their “21/21 Plan,” launched in October, aiming to raise $42 billion through stock and debt issuance to bolster its Bitcoin reserves over three years. To date, Strategy has sold about $20.9 billion worth of common shares, with only $128 million left available for future offerings. The company also has nearly $30 million in room for additional STRK share sales, according to SEC filings.
Investment firm Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, recently released an updated and boldly optimistic forecast for Bitcoin. According to their latest report, Bitcoin could reach up to $2.4 million per coin by 2030. In a more conservative scenario, they estimate Bitcoin could still reach around $500,000 within the next five years. This optimistic revision stems from a refined methodology that now incorporates “active supply” — excluding lost or long-term held coins — into their valuation models. Ark’s analysis estimates that about 40% of Bitcoin’s supply is “vaulted,” justifying a 40% upward adjustment compared to previous estimates. Several factors support this bullish outlook: Bitcoin’s growing adoption as “digital gold,” increasing institutional investment through spot ETFs, rising interest from emerging market investors seeking safe-haven assets, and corporate treasuries diversifying into Bitcoin. Ark joins other industry leaders, such as Strategy’s Michael Saylor and Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong, in predicting multi-million-dollar valuations for Bitcoin in the future.
Standard Chartered is also maintaining its bullish stance on Bitcoin, expecting it to hit a new all-time high of $120,000 by the end of this quarter and reaching $200,000 by year-end. According to Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, this surge will likely be driven by a strategic reallocation of U.S. capital into Bitcoin as investors seek alternatives to traditional American assets. Rising bond yields — historically correlated with Bitcoin rallies — whale accumulation, and strong crypto ETF inflows are all fueling this optimistic outlook. Kendrick also notes that time-of-day trading analysis suggests American investors are increasingly positioning themselves in Bitcoin as a hedge against domestic economic risks. The political backdrop also plays a role: hopes of a rollback of Trump’s tariffs have boosted appetite for alternative assets. Over the past week alone, Bitcoin climbed nearly 9% after several weeks of stagnation.
Please note that this newsletter will take a break next week as the author will be enjoying a week of vacation.
The presented information is as of April 29th, 2025, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.
