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Crypto Bulletin – Week 383

Bitcoin posted a significant increase on Monday, reaching a high of over $88,000—its highest level since late March. This rally caught many traders off guard, especially those who had bet on a price drop. According to CoinGlass, more than $97 million in short positions on Bitcoin were liquidated over the past 24 hours, while total short positions across the crypto market closed in at nearly $180 million. This performance sharply contrasts with the bearish trend seen in U.S. equity markets, where the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all fell by about 3% on Monday. The current situation highlights a growing disconnect between cryptocurrencies and traditional financial markets, with Bitcoin increasingly seen as a safe haven amid economic and political turbulence. This volatility is further amplified by U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent attacks on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, whom he publicly called a “loser.” Trump criticized Powell for not cutting interest rates fast enough and even hinted at replacing him—remarks that have alarmed markets and heightened existing economic uncertainty, particularly due to escalating trade tensions with China.

This unusual divergence between traditional stock performance and Bitcoin’s upward movement comes as Trump intensifies his criticism of Powell, labeling him “Mr. Too Late.” In response to these tensions and Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped to its lowest level since February 2022. This weakening dollar is pushing investors toward perceived safer assets like gold and Bitcoin. Gold has hit a new all-time high at $3,442 per ounce, while Bitcoin continues to assert its role as an alternative asset, detached from traditional market volatility. Could this signal the end of the historical correlation between tech stocks and cryptocurrencies? The start of the week seems to suggest so.

The possibility that President Trump might fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell poses a serious threat to the U.S. economy but could paradoxically benefit Bitcoin. Such a move, unprecedented since the Fed gained its independence in 1951, would likely spark political and financial upheaval. Analysts warn this could severely damage investor confidence in traditional markets like bonds and the dollar, while enhancing Bitcoin’s appeal as a politically neutral alternative. Juan Leon, strategist at Bitwise, believes removing Powell would erode trust in the U.S. economic system—but this very instability could drive investors toward Bitcoin. Like gold, which has surged on global uncertainty, Bitcoin could see mid-term gains as a refuge asset. Matthew Sigel from VanEck shares this view, noting that such an event could undermine faith in U.S. institutions and shift investor behavior closer to patterns seen in emerging markets, where alternatives like Bitcoin look increasingly attractive.

Bitcoin-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. saw record net inflows of $381.4 million on Monday, marking their strongest daily increase since January 30. This influx occurred as Bitcoin remained stable amid traditional market turmoil and a declining U.S. dollar. Among these funds, ARKB—managed by Ark and 21Shares—led with $116.1 million in inflows, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC with $87.6 million, Bitwise’s BITB with $45.1 million, and BlackRock’s IBIT with $41.6 million.

New SEC Chair Paul Atkins is set to review more than 70 crypto ETF applications as he steps into office. These proposals span a wide range of assets—from well-known tokens like Solana and XRP to more niche and humorous coins such as Dogecoin, Pengu, and a token tied to Melania Trump. Seen as more deregulatory than his predecessor Gary Gensler, Atkins enters a regulatory landscape shaped by Gensler’s approval of the first spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Although temporary SEC chair Mark Uyeda clarified earlier this year that meme coins are not generally considered securities, questions remain about whether they are suitable as underlying assets for listed financial products. Atkins will also need to determine whether tokens like XRP and Solana qualify as commodities, which could allow them to be traded similarly to Bitcoin or gold. Specifically for XRP, the SEC can delay its final decision on related ETFs until mid-October, giving Atkins time to define a clear stance. The coming months will be pivotal for the crypto sector as the SEC refines its approach under new leadership.

U.S.-based Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, continues to aggressively accumulate Bitcoin. Last week, it added 6,500 BTC to its reserves, investing $556 million and bringing its total holdings to 538,000 BTC—now valued at about $47.2 billion as Bitcoin surged past $88,000. The acquisition was funded through two recent equity offerings: $548 million from Class A common stock and $8 million from perpetual preferred “STRK” shares. Despite market uncertainty fueled by Trump’s trade war, Strategy has stayed committed to its regular Bitcoin buying strategy. The size of its recent purchases has varied significantly—from $11 million in mid-March to a massive $1.9 billion two weeks later. Co-founder Michael Saylor emphasized that Strategy is no longer a fringe option for Bitcoin exposure. According to him, 13,000 institutions and over 814,000 retail investors hold Strategy stock directly, with an additional 55 million exposed indirectly through ETFs, mutual funds, pensions, and insurance portfolios. Since December, Strategy has been included in the prestigious Nasdaq 100, alongside tech giants like Apple and Meta, although its lack of consistent profits remains a hurdle for entry into the S&P 500.

Coinbase, one of the leading publicly traded U.S. crypto exchanges, is considering applying for a federal banking license. This move aligns with a broader trend among crypto firms aiming to integrate more deeply with the traditional financial system. Although no official decision has been made, Coinbase confirmed it is actively exploring the option, alongside other major players like Circle, Paxos, and BitGo. Securing a bank charter would allow Coinbase to offer services akin to those of traditional banks, such as accepting deposits and issuing loans. However, such a license would also entail stricter regulatory oversight and reporting obligations. The case of Anchorage Digital—a crypto firm holding a federal bank charter and currently under investigation—illustrates the potential regulatory challenges tied to this status.

Panama City has approved a new measure allowing residents to pay for public services using cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, USDC, and Tether (USDT). Announced by Mayor Mayer Mizrachi, this initiative will cover payments for taxes, fines, permits, and administrative fees. Unlike past efforts requiring complex legislative changes, the city has found a streamlined solution that doesn’t demand new laws. To implement this, local authorities will work with banks capable of accepting digital assets and converting them into fiat currency. Panama’s move mirrors a broader global trend: countries like El Salvador and the Central African Republic have already recognized Bitcoin as legal tender, while places like Fiji, Tonga, and some Swiss regions are exploring similar paths.

Bitcoin miners are going through a difficult period and are increasingly selling off their reserves to keep operations running, according to a report by CryptoQuant. Last week, as Bitcoin’s price dropped below $80,000, miners sold nearly 15,000 BTC in a single day (April 7), equivalent to approximately $1.12 billion. This marked the third-largest daily outflow of the year. The pressure is being driven by a combination of negative factors: heightened market volatility—partly due to unpredictable tariff announcements from President Trump—has shaken investor confidence. At the same time, miners’ revenues are being squeezed not only by the decline in Bitcoin’s price but also by reduced transaction fees and record-high mining difficulty, which significantly increases operational costs. CryptoQuant notes that miners’ average profit margins have dropped from 53% in January to just 33% today. Although Bitcoin nearly reached $109,000 prior to Trump’s inauguration, it is now struggling to break above $90,000.

Bitcoin is currently facing a critical technical resistance zone above $88,000—a decisive threshold that could shape its next move. This key area includes the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), positioned at $88,356, which is widely used to gauge long-term trends. A break above this level would be interpreted as a bullish signal. This level also coincides with the upper limit of the Ichimoku Cloud, a technical analysis tool that evaluates momentum, support, and resistance. Surpassing this cloud would further reinforce bullish sentiment. Finally, this resistance zone includes the March 24 peak of $88,804, which preceded a drop back to $75,000.

 

 

For the moment, the bullish rebound is particularly encouraging, especially in the context of traditional finance markets being so shaky. What follows could prove particularly interesting if the levels just mentioned are broken convincingly.

The presented information is as of April 22nd, 2025, unless otherwise indicated and is provided for information purposes only. The information comes from sources that we believe are reliable, but not guaranteed. This statement does not provide financial, legal or tax advice. Rivemont Investments are not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.